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題名 | 匯率調整與預期模型:以雙元匯率為例=Dual Exchange Rate and Expectations |
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作者 | 彭開瓊; | 書刊名 | 清雲學報 |
卷期 | 30:1 2010.01[民99.01] |
頁次 | 頁103-136 |
分類號 | 563.2 |
關鍵詞 | 雙元匯率; 靜態預期; 累退預期; 理性預期; 內在均衡預期; Growth stock investment; Industrial life cycle; Investment performance; Stock investment; Value stock investment; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文以Lai and Chu(1986a)理論架構為藍圖,建立一個中立干預政策的雙 元匯率制度模型,據此分析經濟單位以靜態預期,累退預期,理性預期與內在均 衡預期這四種不同預期形成之下,國內信用增加對實際金融匯率跳動的幅度與跳 動後所調整的路徑的比較。 研究結果發現,靜態預期形成與理性預期形成都是累退預期中的特例。如果 累退預期形成的物價與金融匯率預期係數都等於零,則累退預期形成將退化呈靜 態預期形成。但如果物價與金融匯率預期係數各等於某一個特定的總體參數值, 則實際金融匯率的調整路徑將會與理性預期形成的調整路徑完全一致。所以,在 面對國內信用的增加,且資本移動性較大時,這三種預期都有過度調整的現象; 另一方面在面對國內信用的增加,且資本移動性較小時,這三種預期都有調整不 足的現象。 |
英文摘要 | This paper extends Lai and Chu (1986a) theoretical framework into the several types dual exchange rate model. It is used to analyze the economic units under the formations of four different expectations – static expectations, regressive expectations, rational expectations, and intraequilibrium expectations. With the increase of domestic credit, comparisons are made for the magnitude of the jump of the actual financial exchange rate and the adjusted route after the jump. The result of our research shows that the formation of static expectations and rational expectations are special cases of regressive expectations. Under regressive expectations, if both the coefficient of the price and that of the financial exchange rate expectations are zero, then the formation of regressive expectations will degenerate into the formation of static expectations. However, if the coefficient of the price and that of the financial exchange rate expectations each equal to special valus, then the adjustment route of actual financial exchange rate will be exactly the same as that of the rational expectations formation. The major findings are (1) overshooting in financial exchange rate occurs in static expectations, regressive expectations, rational expectations, depending on higher capital mobility; (2) undershooting in financial exchange rate occurs in static expectations, regressive expectations, rational expectations, depending on lower capital mobility; (3) undershooting or overshooting in financial exchange rate occurs in intraequilibrium expectations. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。