頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 臺灣玉米供需模型之研究=The Demand and Supply Analysis of Taiwanese Corn Market |
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作 者 | 陳郁蕙; | 書刊名 | 臺灣土地金融季刊 |
卷 期 | 35:2=136 1998.06[民87.06] |
頁 次 | 頁153-174 |
分類號 | 431.93 |
關鍵詞 | 存貨內生化; 理性預期; 臺灣玉米市場模型; Endogeneity of the stock level; Rational expectation; The theoretical model of taiwanese corn market; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 為提昇國際地位,近年來我國積極爭取加入世界貿易組織(WTO)。根據世貿組織規 範,各國必須降低其境內之農業總支持水準,所以我國亦面臨此項規範之壓力。而在此強大 壓力之下,國內自給率低之雜糧作物將首當其衝。政府擬於民國八十七年起首先取消雜糧之 保證價格收購制度,以符合WTO之規範。保價收購制度取消之後,勢必對國內之雜糧生產造 成嚴重打擊,亦將加深對國外進口之依賴,故在此時對國內雜糧市場之評估更顯得重要。適 當之存貨量不但影響國內畜牧業與飼料加工業之持續,更是維繫國家糧食安全之依據,因此 除了對雜糧市場重新評估之外,更須強調存貨需求之重要。基於上述幾個理由,本研究發展 出臺灣雜糧作物市場各期之理論模型,並選定最重要之玉米市場為研究對象,建立市場計量 模型,分析其市場結構以對供需及存貨等問題有所了解,進而做為日後研究與政策制度之參 考。 過去關於臺灣玉米市場之研究,由於供需模型之設立未能反映實際市場情況(請參閱國 內文獻回顧部份),或由於分析時所用之資料距今久遠,加上政府在雜糧方面之政策上有所 更迭,故對臺灣玉米市場之結構有重新探討之必要。而本研究最主要的目的即是著重於發展 一套適合臺灣玉米市場情況的理論模型並從事實證分析。 本研究建立以臺灣玉米生長期為基礎之各期玉米市場轉型,而與過去研究不同之處為在 此理論模型中融入了理性預期(Rational Expectation)、存貨廠商的決策制定與存貨水準內 生化等內容。之後,根據理論架構建立市場計量模型,再由所搜集之資料(民國67年至84年 )利用統計學2SLS方法從事實證分析。估計結果顯示,整個模型係數之估計結果,其符號與 預期相同,且大體而言對因變有顯著之影響。為了瞭解模型對日後資料之預測與模型分析之 能力,故亦對估計而得之計量模型做有效性驗證,結果顯示本模型良好之預測能力。 |
英文摘要 | To increase the recognition of our country in the world, the government tried hard to be one of member of the world Trade Organization(WTO). According to the regulations of WTO, all member countries have to decrease the Aggregate Measurement of Support(AMS) in their agriculture sector. As a potential member of WTO, we also face the pressure of decreasing AMS in our agriculture. Beginning from the year of 1998, the government intends to eliminate the price support program for the low self-sufficient field corps. The elimination of the support price program will not only shakes the production structure of these crops, but also deepens our dependence on foreign supplies. To evaluate the impacts of the policy change, we need to review the market structure of these field crops. The proper stock levels will always smooth both the domestic animal productions and the feed crop manufacturing. Moreover, the stock levels of crops also relate to the food security of the nation. Therefore, the importance of the storage will never be over emphasized. Based upon the reasons stated above, this research will investigate the role that the storage demand plays in the Taiwanses corn market. The main purpose of the research is to develop the theoretical model for the Taiwanese field crop markets. The rational expectation, the decisions of the storage industry under uncertainty, and the endogeneity of the stock levels will be incorporated in this theoretical model. According to the theoretical model, the econometric model of the market will be established. The time series data of corn market (1978-1995) and 2SLS methods are employed to estimate the parameters of the econometric model. The estimated model will be used to simulate the market performance. Both the estimate results and simulated results are promising. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。