查詢結果分析
來源資料
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頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 選民投票抉擇階段情境及策略變化對選舉預測之影響--以1998年臺南市立法委員選舉為例=The Effect of Voter's Strategic Contingencies and Changes in Election Predition--A Case Study on 1998 Election of Members of the Legislature in Tainan City |
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作者 | 李錦河; 溫敏杰; Lee, Chin-Ho; Wen, Miin-jye; |
期刊 | 民意研究季刊 |
出版日期 | 19990400 |
卷期 | 208 1999.04[民88.04] |
頁次 | 頁9-34 |
分類號 | 540.19 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 選舉預測; 選民需求指標; 產品屬性; 策略性投票; 投票抉擇; Election prediction; Voter's request indicator; Product attribute; Strategic voting; Voting choice; |
中文摘要 | 「選民需求指標」選舉預測模式乃參酌行銷學理論建構而成。本模式已應用於1997年臺南市市長「多選一」及1998年臺南市安南區市議員「多選多」選舉選前得票率預測,並已獲致相當良好的效果。此次再以1998年臺南市立委「多選多」選舉對象為例,加以驗證「選民需求指標」選舉預測模式施行於該項選舉之有效性。模式經驗證後,雖因選民投票抉擇階段民進黨施行緊急配票策略,導致本研究民進黨屬性候選人部份之預測結果為之失真,但吾人亦由此瞭解選前成功的策略性投票之影響以及其對選舉預測模式建構的重要性。因此,本研究探討的重點包括: 一、探討行銷學理論與選民投票行為之共通性及可行性。 二、探討「選民需求指標」預測模式施行於「多選多」立委選舉之有效性。 三、驗證「選舉預測」工作之進行,採階段性、多次性的必要。 四、探究選民投票抉擇階段之策略性投票對選舉結果之影響程度。 五、模式未來發展方向之探討。 |
英文摘要 | Based on the theories of Marketing Management, "Voter's Request Indicator" in prediction Model is constructed. The model applied to 1997 Tainan Mayoral Election and 1998 Municipal Election in An-Nan District in Tainan City indeed brought about effective prediction. Furthermore in 1998 "Choose many among many candidates" election of members of the legislature in Tainan City, the model can be applied to predict its effectiveness. At voter's voting period, Democratic Progressive Party carries out the urgent strategy to assign votes to some certain candidates and then it causes parts of prediction about the candidates of Democratic Progressive Party are incorrect. But from the experience, I realize that the influence of successfully strategic voting before the election and its importance to construct Election Prediction Model. Hence, in my study the following points will be explored: 1. The similarity and possibility of Marketing concepts and voter's voting behavior. 2. The effectiveness of "Voter's Request Indicator" in prediction model applying to "Choose many among many" election of the members of Legislature. 3. The necessity to verify "Voting prediction" with strategic and multiple ways. 4. The influence of strategic voting before election to the result of prediction. 5. The exploration of development of the model. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。