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題 名 | 灰色理論與迴歸預測應用於短期財務預測之探討=A Study of Application of Gray Analysis and Regression Analysis to the Shorten Financial Forecastion |
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作 者 | 陳榮方; 楊敏里; | 書刊名 | 高雄科學技術學院學報 |
卷 期 | 27 1997.12[民86.12] |
頁 次 | 頁217-228 |
分類號 | 494.7 |
關鍵詞 | 灰色理論; 迴歸分析; 財務預測; Gray theory; Regression analysis; Financial forecasting; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 在競爭日趨激烈,環境快速變化的挑戰下,企業更需要良好財務預測工具以保 持其競爭優勢,傳統常以專家意見法、迴歸預測法、時間序列模式等方法預測。本文試圖 以灰色預測模式與迴歸預測法預測針對短期財務資料作預測;實務上,採用南亞塑膠公司 民國81年至85年的財務資料,以灰色預測模型與迴歸預測法作預測,得到實證結果發現以 灰色預測模型所得到的預測值平均殘差遠小於迴歸預測法的預測值平均殘差,由此實證結 果獲知灰色GM(1,1)預測模型有較佳之預測效果。 |
英文摘要 | In today business environment, a company faces the challenge of rapid change. it needs the tool of forecasting to keep the advantage of competition The traditional forecasting includes expert opinion method, regression analysis and time serial method. The paper aims to use the method of gray theory and regression analysis in the shorten financial forecasting. In the practice, it used the case of NAIN YA Plastics Corporation during 1992 to 1996, The attributed in both balance sheet and income statement consisted of 17 factors. After comparison, the Gray Approach made a average error less than Re2ression Analysis. It confirmed the validation of Gray theory for the shorten financial forecasting. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。