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題名 | 臺灣民宿產業發展預測之研究=The Study on Forecast of Taiwan Private Lodging Industry Development |
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作者姓名(中文) | 洪麗珠; | 書刊名 | 商業現代化學刊 |
卷期 | 5:1 2009.03[民98.03] |
頁次 | 頁183-198 |
分類號 | 992.61 |
關鍵詞 | 民宿; 觀光業; 預測; 灰色理論; 迴歸分析; 指數平滑法; Private lodging; Tourism industry; Forecast; Grey theory; Regression analysis; Exponential smoothing; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 民宿在國外早已發展多年,像歐美、紐澳、德國、英國等地,甚至是臨近的日本多已非常成熟。面對WTO威脅的傳統農業地區,民宿發展空間大,從整合自然資源開發、培訓導覽解說人員、改善交通狀況來著手,營造良好的旅遊環境。對鄉野村鎮來說,可帶來新的發展契機。(林豐瑞,2002)儘管學術界已發展各式各樣的預測理論與技術,但民宿業界或因相關人才缺乏,或因決策者較不重視,實務上應用於業界之預測理論與技術相當簡單,如指數平滑法,或者完全靠決策者的經驗法則。雖然簡單並節省預測成本,但在如此競爭的經濟環境下卻顯得過於粗糙。預測過多可能浪費人力與配置,預測不足可能喪失獲利機會,所以發展與應用一個較精準與適切的預測模型已成爲民宿產業當今不可或缺之工具。本研究的目的即在建立一較精準產值之預測模式,以提供政府與企業做爲預測之參考。 |
英文摘要 | Private lodging has been well developed abroad, such as in Europe, America, New Zealand, Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom, and even neighboring country Japan. Facing the WTO threat, traditional agricultural areas have spaces to develop private lodging. This would start with an integration of natural resources development, cultivation of tourism and improvement in the traffic situation, all, to create an improved tourist environment. To rural villages and townships, private lodging can bring new development opportunity. Though the academic sector has developed various forecasting theories and techniques, the private lodging industry may, still, lack the related talent. Decision making has not been concerned about this industry, but the forecasting theories and techniques applied in private lodging industry are very simple. For instance, forecasting theories include exponential smoothing or can rely upon the decision maker's experience. Though forecasting theories are simple, they can save costs. However traditionally used models might be too coarse for today's competitive environment. Too much forecasting may waste manpower and resources allocation. Nevertheless insufficient forecasting could cause a loss of profitability. To develop and apply a precise and appropriate forecasting model, therefore, becomes an indispensable tool for private the lodging industry. This research aims to establish such a précise forecasting model to serve as a forecasting reference for government and enterprises. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。