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題名 | Causality between Budget Deficits, Interest Rates, Exchange Rate, and Capital Inflows in Taiwan=臺灣預算赤字與利率、匯率及資本流入之因果關係探討 |
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作者姓名(中文) | 張倉耀; 方文碩; | 書刊名 | 逢甲學報 |
卷期 | 31 1997.06[民86.06] |
頁次 | 頁79-92 |
分類號 | 564.133 |
關鍵詞 | 預算赤字; 定性; 逐步Granger-因果關係; Budget deficits; Stationarity; Stepwise granger-causality; |
語文 | 英文(English) |
中文摘要 | 政府預算赤字對總體經濟變數的影響,在國外,一直引起廣泛的討論,但在臺灣卻 缺乏研究。本文實證探討臺灣中央政府預算赤字與市場利率,匯率及資本流入間之因果關係。 利用逐步Granger-因果關係檢定,我們發現預算赤字單向造成較高的利率,本國貨幣升值及資 本流入。此一事實與理論預期一致,因此,有關當局採行擴張性財政政策時,似應考慮可能發 生的排擠效果及雙赤字問題。 |
英文摘要 | The impact of government budget deficits on macroeconomic variables has been a focus of extensive research. While most previous studies to date focus only on the U.S., none has been done for Taiwan. This paper investigates causal relationships between budget deficits and the interest rates, the exchange rate, and capital inflows for Taiwan. We find that unidirectional Granger causalities run from budget deficits to the interest rates, the exchange rate and capital inflows as theories predict. Thus, the authorities have to be more cautious of expansionary fiscal policies because of possible crowding-out and twin-deficit effects. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。