頁籤選單縮合
題名 | Modelling of Pavement Performance Using Non-Homogeneous Markov Chains=使用非齊次性馬可夫鏈於鋪面績效之模式 |
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作者 | 王磐石; 謝偉超; | 書刊名 | 黃埔學報 |
卷期 | 33 1997.06[民86.06] |
頁次 | 頁93-109 |
分類號 | 442.15 |
關鍵詞 | 非齊次性馬可夫鏈; 鋪面績效; Pavement performance; Transition probability Matrices; Chapman-kolmogorov equation; Markovian process model; |
語文 | 英文(English) |
英文摘要 | Probabilistic models have been used for predicting pavement condition state or performance since early 1970's. One of the approaches that have been developed in pavement management is the homogeneous Markov process. There were many uncertain factors such as weather, traffic patterns that may influence the accurate analysis of pavement performance. This study employs non-homogeneous Morkov transition probability matrices to model the performance of pavements by considering the actually changeable traffic and environmental effects on pavements. The Transition Probability Matrices (TPM) are considered as a time related process. Each element of the TPM P for a pavement section is determined on the basis of reliability analysis and Monte Carlo simulation technique. The Chapman-kolmogorov equation is used to examine the logical extension of the transition probability matrices from a single step to long-term pavement behavior. As a result, the concept of pavement Probabilistic Behavior Curved (PBC) is established. More importantly, it is demonstrated that the Markovian process models the actual pavement behavior satisfactorily. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。