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題 名 | 臺灣地區家庭用電量之預測分析 |
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作 者 | 吳萬益; 蔡瑞文; 黃俊銘; 毛鋒義; | 書刊名 | 台電工程月刊 |
卷 期 | 560 1995.04[民84.04] |
頁 次 | 頁10-18 |
分類號 | 448.11 |
關鍵詞 | 預測; 用電量; 迴歸分析; 時間數列分析; Forecast; Electricity consumption; Regression analysis; Time series analysis; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 臺灣近四十年來經濟、交通等各方面的建設突飛猛進,創造了舉世聞名 的經濟奇蹟,在這經濟成長發展的過程,對電力的需求也相對地增加,導致今日 電力供不應求。 為了解臺灣地區未來十年對民生用電量的需求程度,本研究利用SAS系統做了預 測分析。研究結果顯示,影響民生用電量的因素有"家庭用戶數。及"消費者物價 指數"兩項。預期從民國83~92年家庭用戶數將成長60.91,消費者物價指數將成長 63.47,經由此兩因素之影響,預測在未來十年中家庭用電量成長率將達147.5, 到了民國92年,家庭用電量的需求已高達85,430,413千度,此高成長的用電量值 得相關單位加以重視。 本研究結果,可提供有關當局參考,以了解未來十年家庭用電的需求量,盼能至 方位適時積極的開發能源,以消除長期以來因"限電"所產生之夢魘。 |
英文摘要 | In the past 40 years, the rapid progresses in the economicdevelopment has created a worldwide well-known "TaiwanMiracle". During the process of continuing economic growth,the demand of electricity has increased tremendously, andconsequently, resulted in the shortage of power supply. In order to estimate the demand of household electricityfor the next 10 years, this study adopted SAS package toconduct a forecast of household electricity consumption inTaiwan. The results indicated that, the most critical factorsinfluencing electricity consumptions are "numbers of household account" and "consummer price index". It is expected thatfrom 1994 to 2003, the "numbers of household account" couldincrease by 60.91, and the "consumer price index" couldincrease by 63.47. Using these two factors as predictors, it ispredicted that the household electricity consumption couldincrease by 147.5 in the next 10 years. Consquestly the totalhousehold electricity demand could reach to 85,430,413KW atthe year of 2003. This high demand figure deserve carefullyconsideration. The results of this study could be used as the reference tothe authorities and TPC. It also suggested that we may needmore aggressive actions on energy development and electricitygeneration to solve the problems of power shortages. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。