頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 水庫營運前之缺水風險分析= |
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作者 | 陳昶憲; 陳君維; |
期刊 | 逢甲學報 |
出版日期 | 19941100 |
卷期 | 27 1994.11[民83.11] |
頁次 | 頁159-175 |
分類號 | 443.96 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 水庫; 風險分析; 缺水; 營運; |
中文摘要 | 在臺灣地區,不論氣候或地形,對水資源之利用是相當不利的,除了靠興建水庫 外,還必須有良好的營運策略,使水庫功能做最大的發揮。傳統上,水庫多以操作規線操作 ,以提供長期的操作策略,但由於水文具有顯著的不確定性,因此其操作失敗的風險定然存 在,此亦需提供決策者做參考。 本文以規劃中之建民水庫為探討對象,利用時間序列分析法建立序率水文模式,以合成可能 發生的流量序列,再經由操作規線之實際模擬,分析水庫營運前之缺水風險。 |
英文摘要 | The climate and topography in Taiwan, they are adverse to the utilization of water resources. It will be improved such situation, not only building reservoirs but also wellmanagement policy. In tradition, the rule curve provides a long-term guide line for reservoir operation. However, in the real world the high uncertainty of hydrological variations cause the risk of failure to meeting demands in reservoir operation. The risk is needed to refer for decision maker. In this paper, the case study is for Jiann-min reservoir. The procedure of this study is listed as follow. First, to establish the stochastic hydrological model by time series analysis, and then used to generate the series of the possible inflow of reservoir. Second, to simulate the reservoir operation by the rule curve, and to arrange the operation result of the shortage condition. The last, to investigate the risk of the shortage condition by frequency analysis. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。