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題 名 | 考慮不同替代入流量之水庫限水策略=Study on the Reservoir Hedging Rules for Various Alternative Inflows |
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作 者 | 李皓志; 蕭政宗; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷 期 | 49:1 2003.03[民92.03] |
頁 次 | 頁61-77 |
分類號 | 554.57 |
關鍵詞 | 水庫操作; 限水策略; 缺水指標; Reservoir operation; Hedging rules; Shortage index; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 水庫蓄豐濟枯的功能可以提供穩定的供水,但由於需水量增加,在不預期的乾旱期間有時無法滿足既定的需水量而至產生缺水,良好的水庫操作策略可以減低因缺水所產生的負面影響。為避免嚴重缺水現象產生,採取適當的限水措施為常用的策略之一。本文考慮的水庫限水策略由二參數控制,其一為起始限水水量,其值介於零與需水量之間,另一參數為終止限水水量,其值介於需水量與需水量及庫容量和之間,當水庫可用水量(蓄水量與入流量之和)介於此二參數間時即採取限水。但由於實際入流量無法事先預知,因此本文以入流量歷史紀錄之最小值及平均值,稱為替代入流量,來代替實際入流量。本文以簡化的石門水庫供水系統為例,以總缺水率、單月最大缺水量、風險度、缺水事件最大缺水量等四項缺水指標評估不同替代入流量與限水參數之限水策略,而最佳限水策略的決定為能使此四項缺水指標同時達到最低值。分析結果顯示以平均入流量時,且限水控制參數之起始限水水量為70%之需水量,終止限水水量為需水量與70%庫容量之和為水庫最佳限水策略。 |
英文摘要 | The major function of reservoirs is to regulate surface flows and offer stable supplies. However, increasing demands and unexpected drought periods often cause the supplies from reservoirs insufficient to meet the established demands. A good reservoir operating policy can mitigate the negative impacts caused by water shortages. It is often to accept a small current deficit in order to reduce the intensity of a more severe shortage in future. In this study, hedging is controlled by two parameters, starting hedging parameter between 0 and demand, ending hedging parameter between demand and sum of demand and reservoir capacity. When the available water in reservoirs, i.e. storage plus inflow, is between these two parameters, the hedging is initialized. Actual inflows cannot be known before ending of an analysis period, two alternative inflows, minimum and mean, therefore, are considered instead. Applied to Shihmen Reservoir and evaluated by the deficit ratio, maximum one-month shortage, risk, and maximum event shortage, the best hedging rule is determined when the four shortage indices reaching it's minimum value simultaneously. The best hedging rule suggested in this study is using the mean inflow and hedging parameters are 70% of demand and sum of demand and 70% of reservoir capacity. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。