頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 臺灣南部地區歷年年一日、年二日和年三日最大雨量之迴歸分析=Regression Analyses of Annual One-day, Two-day, and Three-day Maximum Rainfalls in Southern Taiwan |
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作者 | 沈少文; | 書刊名 | 作物、環境與生物資訊 |
卷期 | 8:2 2011.06[民100.06] |
頁次 | 頁139-152 |
分類號 | 354.7722 |
關鍵詞 | 年一日最大雨量; 年二日最大雨量; 年三日最大雨量; 迴歸分析; 預測區間; 臺灣南部地區; Annual one-day maximum rainfall; Annual two-day maximum rainfall; Annual three-day maximum rainfall; Regression analysis; Prediction interval; South Taiwan; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 摘要 臺灣地區時常發生嚴重暴雨災害,因此 探討歷年年一日最大雨量、年二日最大雨量 和年三日最大雨量有助於臺灣地區環境經營 與管理。本研究分析臺灣南部地區水利署雨 量測站雨量資料,雨量測站共42 站,雨量測 站標高範圍為17 m 到1,850 m,雨量測站平 均年雨量範圍為1,381 mm 到4,221 mm。本 研究嘗試建立年一日最大雨量、年二日最大 雨量和年三日最大雨量迴歸模式,據此推測 臺灣南部地區平均年雨量1,000~5,000 mm 地區之年一日最大雨量、年二日最大雨量和 年三日最大雨量及其95%和99%預測區間, 同時計算推測臺灣南部地區標高10~2,000 m 地區之年一日最大雨量、年二日最大雨量和 年三日最大雨量及其95%和99%預測區間。 本研究發現平均年雨量3,000 mm 之地區其 估計年一日、年二日和年三日最大雨量分別 是938 mm、1,379 mm 和1,677 mm,年一日 最大雨量占平均年雨量3,000 mm 之31%, 年二日最大雨量占平均年雨量之46%,年三 日最大雨量占平均年雨量之56%。臺灣南部 地區標高1,000 m 之地區其估計年一日、年 二日和年三日最大雨量是 1,132 mm、1,730 mm 和2,128 mm,年二日最大雨量是年一日 雨量的1.53 倍,年三日最大雨量是年一日雨 量的1.88 倍。研究結果可供相關水利單位參 考,期望有助於臺灣南部地區集水區環境永 續經營與管理。 |
英文摘要 | ABSTRACT Severe storms often occur in Taiwan. Therefore, examination of annual one-day, two-day, and three-day maximum rainfalls is helpful to the sustainable development and environmental management in Taiwan. This study analyzed rainfall data from 42 rainfall stations distributed in southern Taiwan. The altitudes of these stations ranged from 17 m to 1,850 m, while annual rainfall varied from 1,381 mm to 4,221 mm. From the results, regression equations of annual one-day, two-day, and three-day maximum rainfalls were developed and were used to predict annual one-day, two-day, and three-day maximum rainfalls in the range of annual rainfall between 1,000 and 5,000 mm. The equations were also used to predict annual one-day, two-day, and three-day maximum rainfalls when altitude is between 10 and 2,000 m. The 95% and 99% prediction intervals were also calculated. Results indicate that at annual rainfallof 3,000 mm, annual one-day, two-day, and three-day maximum rainfalls are 938 mm, 1,379 nm and 1,677 mm, respectively. At the altitude of 1,000 m, annual one-day, two-day, and three-day maximum rainfalls are 1,132 mm, 1,730 mm, and 2,128 mm, respectively. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。