查詢結果分析
來源資料
相關文獻
- Tourist Arrival Forecasting Using Adaptive Fuzzy Network
- 自我組織式模糊系統作短期電力負載預測
- 財務分析師,管理當局及統計模式預測準確度之比較研究
- The Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in Taiwan's Tourism Industry : Cases of Inbound and Outbound Tourism
- 臺灣民宿產業發展預測之研究
- The Influence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Taiwan's Tourism Industry: The Case of Outbound Departures
- 基於基因學習演算法之適應性類神經模糊推論系統於端銑削加工模型預測
- 應用機器學習與模糊推論於股價漲跌預測之研究
- 卷積神經模糊方法於多目標時間序列預測研究
- 機器學習演算法建立船舶主機預兆式健康管理模型
頁籤選單縮合
題名 | Tourist Arrival Forecasting Using Adaptive Fuzzy Network=以可適性模糊網路預測觀光客人數之研究 |
---|---|
作者 | 江曉綺; Jiang, Sheau-chi; |
期刊 | 文大商管學報 |
出版日期 | 20070600 |
卷期 | 12:1 2007.06[民96.06] |
頁次 | 頁187-206 |
分類號 | 992 |
語文 | eng |
關鍵詞 | 可適性模糊網路; 觀光業; 預測; 學習演算法; Adaptive fuzzy network; Tourism; Forecast; Learning algorithm; |
中文摘要 | 國際觀光業是世界最大及成長最快速的產業,由於觀光產業的產品與服務具有無法保存的特性,因此如果能準確預測國際觀光客人數便可對觀光產品、服務的提供及基本的設施做成功的規劃以增加經濟利益。因此本研究提出一個新的預測工具,即是使用以Widrow-Hoff學習演算法為基礎的可適性模糊網路來建立一個預測的模式,並據以預測來台的日本與美國觀光客人數,其預測結果可以達到非常不錯的準確度,因此可證實此研究所建立之模式是一個具有良好預測能力的模式,並可作為觀光產業決策者與管理者在觀光產品及設施規劃上的重要參考。 |
英文摘要 | International tourism has become one of the largest and most rapidly growing industries in the world. Since there exists the perishable nature of the product and service in the tourism industry, it is crucial to have an accurate forecast of its international visitors and tourism receipts in order to choose an appropriate strategy for its economic benefits. In this paper, a new approach is proposed and that is a fully connected adaptive fuzzy network (AFN) based on Widrow-Hoff learning algorithm to model and forecast the tourist arrivals for the travel of international visitors to Taiwan. And the difference between the expected and the forecast output values falls into a very acceptable range of discrepancies, which means that using the adaptive fuzzy network has reached the required level of accuracy. The result is in good accord with the monitored data and allows its use as the forecasting model to help policy makers and managers of tourism industry to develop planning for various tourism activities. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。