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題名 | 迴歸分析與灰色理論在電力需求量預測之比較--臺電實證案例=The Comparison on the Electric Demands Prediction by the Regression Analysis and Grey Theory--Positive Case by Taipower |
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作者姓名(中文) | 應立志; 潘美秋; | 書刊名 | 德明學報 |
卷期 | 23 2004.06[民93.06] |
頁次 | 頁33-56 |
分類號 | 448.115 |
關鍵詞 | 灰色理論; 需電量; 迴歸分析; Grey theory; Electric demands; Regression analysis; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 預測技術的應用在決策過程中,因其能有效提供精確的前瞻資訊,是以對決策者而言,一直是個重要的輔助工具,本研究以歷史資料運用累加一筆方式,將歷史資料分成十三組觀測資料,完整探討需電量對迴歸分析與灰色理論之預測效果。 研究結果顯示:由不同觀測資料之取得,透過本研究所設計之灰色預測系統模式與迴歸分析模式,經作觀測資料檢視與往後推估五期資料檢驗後,發現當採用的觀測值期數增至十六期以上時,灰色預測模式之準確度略遜於迴歸分析模式。故知若只考慮“近期”觀測資料之影響並據以預測未來之需電量時,仍建議採用灰色預測系統來建構需電量的需求預測模式。 |
英文摘要 | With its effect to offer accurate prospect information, the application of prediction technology in policy making process has long been a significant auxiliary tool for policy makers. This study employs the method of cumulative addition to one unit through historical data which would be divided into 13 groups of observation data, in hope of delving into the predictive effect of linear regression analysis and grey prediction system to electric demands. The results of research indicate that: After examining the observation data and inspecting the prediction of 5-period data in downwards by obtaining different observation data through grey prediction model and regression analysis model, accurate rate of the grey prediction system is slightly inferior to regression analysis when period number of observations is added to at least 16 periods. It is apparent that at the time when taking the effect of “near” observation data into consideration and taking it as a basis to predict the future electricity demands, grey prediction system is suggested to construct the demand prediction model of the electricity demands. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。