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| 題 名 | 組合型認購權證評價模式之實證研究=An Empirical Study of Pricing Models for Basket Warrants |
|---|---|
| 作 者 | 劉文祺; 楊芳玫; 詹麗錦; | 書刊名 | 證券櫃檯 |
| 卷 期 | 54 2000.12[民89.12] |
| 頁 次 | 頁24-49 |
| 分類號 | 563.54 |
| 關鍵詞 | 組合型認購權證; 隱含波動率; 動態避險率; 系統風險; 對數常態分配; Basket warrants; Implied volatility; Dynamic delta; Systematic risk; Log normal distribution; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| 中文摘要 | 台灣權證市場自86年8月20日寶來證券首度推出第一支組合型認購權證(標的 股為國建、中工、太設、華新及中石化)之後,至今已陸續推出16檔組合型認購權證,其中 基本型及重設型權證各佔一半。組合型認購權證最大的特性在於其商品設計非常的有彈性, 可以同時規避數種不同標的資產的風險,因此可以針對投資人、法人專門需求而設計適合的 產品,組合型權證之價格是否合理以及是否適合投資自然漸漸成為投資人心中想要瞭解的重 點。 有關組合型的評價最困難的之處,在於Black&Scholes評價模式之前提假設之一為「標 的資產呈對數常態分配」,但組合標的價經加權平均後,就不是呈對數常態分配,然依數理統 計理論,數個對數常態分配的變數經過幾何平均之後,仍呈對數常態分配(Log Normal Distribution),因此本研究乃對組合標的價如何轉幾何平均的過程詳加說明及推導,並實證 瞭解轉換後是否比轉換前更呈對數常態分配。依前述轉換後,再借助CRR及B/S選擇權評價 模式,對組合型的合理價格、動態避險率及隱含波動率等方面加以評價,且為加速求算的速 度及反覆試的效率,乃以Visual Basic設計相關的程試。本研究為了對組合型權證的諸多現 象加以歸納瞭解,更使用Friedman變異數分析、Hollander-Wolfe多重比較、Lilliefors 有關樣本、Wilcoxon成對觀測及曼-惠特尼的U等無母數的檢定法,對相關的現象加以檢定, 以供投資人及券商徹底對該種權證進行訂價及避險的參考。 |
| 英文摘要 | There have been 16 basket warrants issued in Taiwan warrants market since Polaris securities company issued the first basket warrant on August 20,1997. One of the most distinguished features for basket warrants is its flexibility of commodity design which may hedge different underlying assets simultaneously. This commodity can be customized for the specific needs of investors and institutes. Therefore the investors have the desire to the desire to understand whether the prices of certain basket warrants are reasonable and justified for investment. The most difficult problem for pricing the basket warrants is to meet one of the required assumptions in Black & Scholes Pricing Model, which is the underlying assets are log-normal distributed. Usually, the weighted average of its underlying price is not lognormal distributed. But the geometric average of several lognormal distributed variables follows the log-normal distribution according to a statistical theory. The purpose of this research is to explain and derive the transformation process of geometric average for the underlying price, and prove that the result is closer to a log-normal distribution than before. Then, it applies CRR and B/S options pricing models to evaluate the prices of basket warrants, dynamic delta and volatility. It also designs a Visual Basic program for efficient calculation and testing. Furthermore, it tested many hypotheses with the techniques such as Friedman variance analysis, Hollander-Wolfe multiple comparison, Wilcoxon test and Mann-Whitney U test, which provides a good pricing and hedging tool for investors and stock brokers as well. Key words… Basket Warrants ˊ Implied Volatility ˊ Dynamic Delta ˊ Systematic Risk ˊ Log Normal Distribution. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。