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題 名 | 印度與巴基斯坦的核武競爭=Nuclear Rivalry between India and Pakistan |
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作 者 | 陳文賢; | 書刊名 | 問題與研究 |
卷 期 | 38:12 1999.12[民88.12] |
頁 次 | 頁1-16 |
分類號 | 578.184 |
關鍵詞 | 印度; 巴基斯坦; 喀什米爾; 核武; India; Pakistan; Kashmir; Nuclear weapons; Nuclear deterrence; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 印度與巴基斯坦於一九九八年五月相繼進行核子試爆而成為事實上的核武國家。 兩國從一九九○年為了喀什米爾再度爆發軍事衝突迄今,並未見衝突層次的提升及衡突範圍 的擴大,核武應扮演了一個迫使雙方自制的重要角色。同時印巴雙方已非單純的認為核武是 用來防備兩國的衝突,而進一步認為核武關係到本身的國家安全。例如,印度認為必須防備 來自北京及伊斯蘭馬巴德的草事威脅,巴基斯坦則以使用核武的威脅來嚇阻印度對巴基斯坦 的攻擊。因此,謀求印巴之間的核子平衡及穩定,聊合國及五大核武強國似乎須從如何引導 印巴邁向核武戰略穩定,及如何和平解決喀什米爾衝突雙管齊下的途徑來加以思考。 |
英文摘要 | Since India and Pakistan conducted their nuclear tests in May l998, the international community has been concerned about a possible nuclear exchange between the two countries should their conflict over Kashmir in- tensify. Some fear that a nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan might result from their respective nuclear tests. Yet, drawing upon nuclear deterrence theory and considerations of why states develop nuclear weapons, this paper argues that the fact that both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons may further restrain both countries in their military conflict over Kashmir. This is because domestic politics, scientific and technological achievements, as well as a concern for national security have become driving forces for developing nuclear weapons in India. Pakistan, moreover, "went nuclear" very much for the same reason. In order to maintain a nuclear balance between India and Pakistan, the five nuclear powers need to adopt a new way of thinking to deal with the development of nuclear weapons in both countries. At the same time, it is also important for the United Nations and regional organizations such as the South Asian Asso- ciation for Regional Cooperation to mediate the dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。