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題名 | 氣候變遷對水資源影響評估與適應策略研擬=The Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and Response Strategies |
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作者 | 童慶斌; 洪念民; 陳主惠; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷期 | 45:4 1999.12[民88.12] |
頁次 | 頁73-90 |
分類號 | 554.57 |
關鍵詞 | 氣候變遷; 水資源; 全球暖化; 溫室效應; Climatic change; Water resources; Global warming; Greenhouse effect; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究擬根據未來可能之氣候變遷預設情境,建立水文摸擬與水資源影響評估之模 擬程序,以評估水資源可能遭受到氣候變遷之衝擊。自工業革命以來,由於人類活動大量增加 大氣中之溫室氣體,影響了地球之能量平衡關係,進而可能改變氣候狀態。目前一般的預測在 大氣CO□濃度增加為兩倍時,全球溫度將上升1.5到4.5℃之間。溫度上升將增加蒸發散量, 也因而減少了河川流量,如此,河川乾旱的情況可能變得更嚴重。降雨的增加或減少亦會直接 影響水資源。本研究目的為評估水資源受氣候變遷影響之損害度及提出適應對策,將臺灣分成 四區,每區選擇主要河川評估河川流量受到之衝擊,包括北勢溪、大甲溪、曾文溪及秀姑巒溪, 探討不同用水標的需求量之影響機制,及對蓄水容量需求進行評估,缺水風險亦於本研究中探 討。流量模擬方面,年流量方面北部與中部增加約10%以內,但對於南部地區增加幅度則較大, 對於UKMO模式結果由於對於豐水期雨量修正可高達50%其適用仍須進一步評估;對於豐水期 流量皆呈現增加趨勢,約6%至20%,各模式結果相當一致;枯水期流量摸擬方面呈現減少趨勢, 減少約10%。水庫容量方面,GISS模式與CCCM模式結果較為一致,由於德基水庫與曾文水庫用 水量以農業用水為大宗,因此農業用水量以溫度改變做修正時,將使需求量大幅增加,致使水 庫容量增加,雖然預測未來年流量增加,但因為豐、枯水期差異增加,對水庫容量規劃仍屬不利 影響,用水調配可能更加困難。 |
英文摘要 | Simulation procedure for hydrology and water resources impact assessment was developed. Based on future climate scenarios, the impacts of climate change on water resources were evaluated. Greenhouse gases have increased due to human activities since industrial revolution, which affects the earth's energy balance and further influence climate. Global mean temperature is expected to increase 1.5~4.5℃ due to doubling atmospheric CO□. Higher temperature may increase evapotranspiration and thus reduce streamflow. Therefore, drought may become more serious. Besides, increasing or decreasing precipitation will also affect water resources directly. The purposes of this study are to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources due to climate change, and to propose possible response strategies. Taiwan is divided into four regions, and one major river is selected for each region. The selected rivers include the Bashi creek, Tachia creek, Tsengwen Creek, and Hsogunaw creek. Active storage requirements were evaluated, and the risks of water supply deficit were also assessed. The simulation results indicate annual streamflow increases 10% in the North and Central regions. Streamflow increases 6%~20% in humid season, and decreases about 10% for arid seasons. The simulation results of active storage requirements are consist based on GISS and CCCM scenarios. Agricultural water demand will increase due to higher temperature, which causes to larger active storage requirements in the Tachia creek and Tsengwen creek. Although annual streamflows may increase in climate change conditions, increase of streamflow difference between humid and arid seasons may also bring more difficulties for water management. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。