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題 名 | 李登輝情結的政治心理與選民的投票行為=The Political Psychology of Lee Teng-hui Complex and Its Effects on Voting Behavior |
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作 者 | 徐火炎; | 書刊名 | 選舉研究 |
卷 期 | 5:2 1998.11[民87.11] |
頁 次 | 頁35-71 |
分類號 | 573.36 |
關鍵詞 | 李登輝情結; 臺灣心; 臺灣人驕傲感; 中國人驕傲感; 中國情; Lee Teng-hui complex; Taiwan mind; China concerns; Taiwanese pride; Chinese pride; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文應用1994至1996年間關於省市長、三屆立委及總統等四筆選後抽樣調查資料,探討選民的李登輝情結與黨派投票抉擇的關係。研究發現之一指出,民眾的李登輝情結除了是民眾對台灣人驕傲感的一種投射感情外,也可說是一種具有相當穩定性質的大眾政治心理現象,在1994年至1996年之間並無顯著的大變化。其次,本文的分析顯示,民眾的李登輝情結雖然是屬於單純的一種政治情感態度,但卻同時與台灣心、中國情等分別具顯著負相關的兩組對立的政治心理,都具有顯著的正相關關係,這也進一步說明民眾李登輝情結本質上乃是一種併發性的政治心理。第三,本文研究發現:省籍、台灣人的驕傲感與中國情等,乃是影響民眾李登輝情結的主要解釋變項,反而與一般預期的統獨立場不具有一致與顯著的影響關係。最後,本文透過多元邏輯迴歸的分析,確認選民的李登輝情結心理,對於他們在三屆立委與總統選舉的黨派投票抉擇,都具有顯著的影響作用;尤其是對於李登輝參選的總統選舉而言,更具有顯著的決定效果。 |
英文摘要 | This paper examines the nature and its correlated characteris-tics of what has been popularly termed "Lee Teng-hui complex" in Taiwan's political discourse in the 1990s by an analysis of available post-electoral survey data sets collected between 1994 and 1996. As measured by a set political affect toward President Lee Teng-hui, our findings show that Lee Teng-hui complex is a kind of stable mass political psyche mainly reflecting a pride of being Taiwanese as well as Chinese. Moreover, Lee Teng-hui complex is ascer-tained to be a syndrome as it is found to have significant and posi-tive correlation with two sets of polarized and negatively related po-litical attitudes that taping so-called "Taiwan mind" and "China con-cerns" respectively at the same time. A conjecture in electoral campaign that ascribes Taiwanese' s Lee Teng-hui complex as a psy-chological foundation in supporting Taiwan independence is there-fore empirically ungrounded with the available data, given that Lee Teng-hui is the first and foremost Taiwanese President. Thirdly, ethnicity, Taiwanese pride, China concerns are all found to be sig-nificant predictors of Lee Teng-hui complex, and the causal effects are held consistent against different data sets in point. Finally, with multinomial logit analysis, Lee Teng-hui complex is found as a consistent and significant psychological factor, along with party i-dentification, in directing voter's final vote-choice in recent elec-tions, especially in the presidential election held in 1995 in which in-cumbent President Lee Teng-hui involved. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。