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來源資料
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題 名 | 運輸建設BOT計畫政府籌資情境之探討=The Analysis of Government Financing Strategies for Transportation Infrastructure BOT Scheme |
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作 者 | 魏健宏; 鍾明志; | 書刊名 | 經社法制論叢 |
卷 期 | 23 1999.01[民88.01] |
頁 次 | 頁135-161 |
分類號 | 557.1 |
關鍵詞 | 運輸設施; 民營化; 籌資方案; 情境; Transportation infrastructure; Privatization; Raising money; Scenario analysis; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 近年來台灣地區對運輸建設的需求大增,然而由於政府財政困難,乃傾向鼓勵民 間投資參與公共建設。在實行運輸建設民營化的過程中,在財務方面,政府和民間會面對 籌資方案的難題。本研究係由上述觀點探討運輸建設民營化籌資方案情境模擬運用於我國 應有之考量。 本研究採用情境分析法和問卷調查法來探討BOT籌資情境策略,並改進傳統數量預測方 法依賴歷史資料的缺點,以高速公路建設為研究範圍,以政府部門為研究對象。本研究以 灰色統計法來分析問卷,進而挑選出在三種情況下之最終決策情境。並使得出之模擬情境 較富彈性。而根據獎參條例、銀行法等法律,吾人可知影響政府籌資之關鍵不確定影響因 素有政府政策、經濟情況、國外利率等項。 |
英文摘要 | Traffic demand increases tremendously in recent years. Due to the difficulty in public finance, the government has decided to encourage private investors to participate in the implementation of transportation infrastructure. In the finance aspects, the government and private investors are likely to face various problems in raising money. Taking into account the above concerns, this study intends to work out a scenario framework suitable for our own privatization circumstances. A questionaire and scenario analysis approach is designed to discuss the BOT raising money scenario mentioned above. This method improves shortcoming of dependence on historical data of traditional quantitative methods. The government strategy on new freeway implementation is the main subject of this study. The gray statistics is applied to analyze the questionnaire. It is found that the scenario analysis is quits flexible in supporting appropriate decision under various conditions. It is found that the key uncertainties of government financing scenarios are government policy, economic situation and overseas interest rate. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。