查詢結果分析
來源資料
相關文獻
- 混合機率分布於水文頻率分析適用性之研究
- 蓮華池地區降雨-延時-頻率關係及不同降雨延時之設計雨型歷線
- 臺灣北部區域雨量強度公式之研究(2):無母數區域雨量頻率分析
- 應用集水區降雨特性進行洪水頻率分析
- 以實測流量頻率分析結果率定設計雨型之研究
- 心房纖維顫動之體表心電圖顫動波頻率分析及應用
- 畢祿溪地區不同降雨延時之設計雨型歷線
- 統計檢定法應用於區域頻率分析之研究
- A New Approach for Time-Frequency Analysis of Heart Rate Variability and Assessment of Time-Frequency Representations
- 水文頻率分析--核方法
頁籤選單縮合
| 題 名 | 混合機率分布於水文頻率分析適用性之研究=Studies on Aptness of Mixture Distributions for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis |
|---|---|
| 作 者 | 虞國興; 章翔萍; | 書刊名 | 臺灣水利 |
| 卷 期 | 46:4=184 1998.12[民87.12] |
| 頁 次 | 頁42-51 |
| 分類號 | 443 |
| 關鍵詞 | 頻率分析; 混合機率分布; Frequency analysis; Mixture distribution; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| 中文摘要 | 由於理論上混合機率分布之累積機率呈反曲或 S 型,且水文資料常因其長度不足 或資料特性之關係,點繪於機率紙上亦常呈現反曲或 S 型, 此時,吾人易將資料判定為滿 足某一特性之混合機率分布。 因此,若一資料點繪於機率紙上呈現反曲或是 S 型時,資料 是否滿足某一特定之機率分布或混合機率分布為本研究探討之主題。故,本研究以統計特性 已知之合成資料, 探討當資料以混合機率分布及傳統上常用之單一機率分布( NOR、LN2、 EV1 及 PT3 )分別擬合後,其推估值與理論值以及推估值與樣本本身兩者間之差異, 並針 對不同樣本大小進行分析,以了解混合機率分布之適用性。研究中並分析臺灣地區資料記錄 年至少 30 年之年一日、二日、三日最大降雨量資料,共計 250 站,以供規劃之參考。 研 究結果顯示,由於資料的特性與樣本數過小,其常易被判定為混合機率分布,其中,又以資 料為極端值 I 型分布及皮爾遜 III 型分布時,造成資料誤判為混合機率分布的比例較高。 應用於臺灣地區年一日、二日及三日最大降雨資料時發現,混合對數常態分布十分不適宜, 然, 最佳分布以皮爾遜 III 型分布及混合常態分布所佔的比例最多,且若當混合常態分布 為最佳分布時,次佳分布大都為皮爾遜 III 型分布,同時,此現象均發生於小樣本時。 因 此,依據合成資料之研究結果可知,臺灣地區年一日、二日、三日最大暴雨資料仍應採用皮 爾遜 III 型分布,而非混合常態分布。 |
| 英文摘要 | The theoretical cumulative probability of the mixture distributions shows reverse curvatures. For the real hydrological data, however, due to the small sample size and the characteristics of data, data that draw on the probability paper often shows the reverse curvatures. By this time, it tends to identify it to mixture distributions. Consequently, when the data shows reverse curvatures on probability paper, would it satisfy a single probability distribution or mixture distributions is the major objection of this study. First of all, the synthetic data which is statistical property is known is fitted by mixture probability distribution (NOR, LN) and single probability distribution (NOR, LN2, EV1 and PT3) to yield estimated values separately. The difference between the comparison of estimated value and theoretical value and the comparison of estimated value and sample itself has been discussed with the different sample sizes to examine the aptness of the mixture distributions. Furthermore, the record of hydrology data of Taiwan area, at least thirty years of the annual maximum 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day rainfall (total 250 stations), is also analyzed in this study. From this research result, the hydrology data inclined to be misidentified as a mixture distribution because of property of the data and its small sample. However, most of the cases are belonged to Type I extreme distribution or Pearson type III distribution. For the annual maximum 1-day, 2-day and 3-day reinfall data, it was found that the mixture log-normal distribution is not appropriate. The most appropriate distributions are Pearson Type III and mixture normal distributions for the real data. However when the best distribution is mixture normal, most of the second best one are Pearson Type III distribution, particularly for the small sample size. Therefore, according to the results obtained by the synthetic data study, the Pearson Type III distribution is an appropriate for the annual maximum rainfall data in Taiwan area. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。