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題名 | 應用模糊推論於混沌車流特性之研究--以短期交通量預測為例=Short-Term Prediction of Chaotic Traffic Flows by Fuzzy Reasoning |
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作者 | 藍武王; 陳郁文; | 書刊名 | 模糊系統學刊 |
卷期 | 4:1 1998.08[民87.08] |
頁次 | 頁73-80 |
分類號 | 557.81 |
關鍵詞 | 混沌理論; 模糊推論; 局部重建法; 交通量預測; Chaos; Fuzzy reasoning; Local reconstruction method; Traffic forecast; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究以物理學中發展多時之混沌理論( Chaos Theory )為基礎,嘗試應用於 國內之臺北市區道路交通量預測。研究結果發現,應用模糊局部重建法之混沌預測技術,可 有效掌握短期交通量之變化型態( pattern ), 對於預測非線性變化之車流特性具相當實 用性與可性度。 |
英文摘要 | Previous studies have shown that traffic flow characteristics can be viewed as chaos because it varies with quasi-periodic dynamics and self-similarity; thus, chaos theory may well depict the traffic forecast in a real world. This paper, based upon chaos theory, attempts to incorporate local reconstruction method with fuzzy reasoning so as to capture the nonlinear dynamics of traffic flow patterns. For selecting the appropriate model-parameters, sensitivity analysis is employed by different threshold values, time lags, and number of time axes. The results show that traffic pattern predicted by the selected models are accurate enough in comparison with the observed traffic-count data. It then strongly suggests that local fuzzy reconstruction method can be satisfyingly applied on the short-term prediction for chaotic traffic flows. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。