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題 名 | 三黨大陸政策的趨同: 選民偏好的常態分配與選票極大化策略=Convergence of Mainland Policies: Standard Distribution of Voters' Preferences and Vote-Maximizing Strategy |
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作 者 | 吳玉山; | 書刊名 | 理論與政策 |
卷 期 | 12:3=47 1998.09[民87.09] |
頁 次 | 頁5-22 |
分類號 | 573.07 |
關鍵詞 | 民主化; 大陸政策; 常態分配; 選票極大化; 統獨爭議; 兩岸關係; Democratization; Mainland policy; Standard distribution; Vote maximization; Unification vs. independence; Cross-straits relations; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 民主化之後,臺灣的大陸政策在許多相互衝突的壓力之下逐漸演化。在這個議題 領域當中,有兩個主要的面向:一個是統獨爭議 (認同 ),一個是經濟與安全的衝突 (利益 )。 本文以這兩個面向作為軸線,構作出一個大陸政策平面,並將各主要政黨的位置和移動 軌跡在平面圖上標誌出來。結果發現各黨的大陸政策雖然起始點相距甚遠,但是已經清楚地 展露出趨同的現象。本文並且進一步論證趨同的根源是在「認同」和「利益」的兩條軸線上 選民偏好都展現出常態分配的情況。對於想要爭取選票的政黨而言,向「認同」和「利益」 兩軸的中點移動是合乎理性的極大化選票策略。從這個意義上而言,臺灣的民主化第一步先 是造成了各黨大陸政策的分歧,因為各黨的基本政治取向不同,而且在民主政治的環境當中 ,得以有公開標舉本身立場,吸引具有類似傾向選民支持的空間與動機。然而接下來同樣的 民主制度又將各黨分散的大陸政策向中央聚攏。本文並論證在兩岸關係的第三軸線上,各黨 因為其大陸政策不同而落於不同位置, 而各黨對中國大陸親善的順序是新黨 -- 舊國民黨 -- 新國民黨 -- 新民進黨 -- 舊民進黨 -- 建國黨。 |
英文摘要 | Taiwan's mainland policy evolved under cross-pressure after democratization. In this policy issue one finds two main dimensions:unification vs. independence (the identity dimension) and economic vs. security interest (interest dimension). One can then pinpoint the positions of the various parties' mainland policies and their trajectories on a policy map composed of the two dimensions as the horizontal and vertical axes. It is found that although the starting points of the various mainland policies are way apart, there is a discernible pattern of convergence among those policies. This paper argues that standard distribution of voters' preferences along the two dimensions is the primary cause of the convergence pattern. It is only natural for vote-maximizing parties to shift towards the middle ground. In this sense, Taiwan's domocracy first dispersed the various parties' mainland policies, for it offered the opportunity and incentive for the parties to differ and champion their divergent causes on this issue, but then induced them to converge towards the middle ground. It is further argued that on the relational line drawn across the origin on the policy map one finds the parties position themselves in decreasing friendliness towards mainland China in the order of:New Party--old KMT--new KMT--new DPP-- old DPP--Taiwan Independence Party. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。