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題 名 | 八掌溪流域降雨--逕流預報模式串聯應用之研究=Study on the Cascaded Application of Rainfall-Runoff Forecasting Models in Pa-chang River Basin |
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作 者 | 王如意; 謝龍生; 王鵬瑞; | 書刊名 | 臺灣水利 |
卷 期 | 46:1=181 1998.03[民87.03] |
頁 次 | 頁12-32 |
分類號 | 443.1 |
關鍵詞 | 統計降雨預測模式; 物理降雨預測模式; 克利金法; 修正型運動波平面模式; 卡門濾波理論; 防洪規劃; Statistical rainfall prediction model; Physical rainfall prediction model; Kriging approach; Modified kinematic wave plane model; Kalman filter approach; Flood-mitigation planning; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究之主要目的乃係研析適用於八掌溪流域之降雨及逕流預報模式,並探討由 降雨預報模式預測之結果對逕流模式演算之影響程度,以期能建立串聯型式之氣象 -- 水文 歷程且較合理迅速之降雨 -- 逕流預報模式。 文中採用統計迴歸及物理解析之方法,建立合適之降雨預報模式。首先根據歷年來侵襲八掌 溪流域之颱風資料,統計其路徑分類,劃分影響計劃地區之降雨界域,建立客觀降雨預測圖 ,繪製流域之等雨量線,可迅速研判不同颱風路徑對降雨之空間及時間分布。研究中且應用 數理研析方法探討地形雨及環流雨之物理機制,推求颱風降雨量與地形、颱風移位及強度之 關係,建立正規化颱風降雨組體圖,作為介入水文系統之動態輸入函數。 本研究將由降雨預報模式所預測及由克利金法推估所得之降雨組體圖視為輸入系統之函數, 再串聯銜接適用之逕流預報模式。所採用之逕流模式為運動波平面概念模式。逕流模式可配 合擴展型卡門濾波理論隨時校正更新系統狀態,以從事洪水之模擬、推估及預測。 降雨 -- 逕流串聯預報模式之建立及校驗可及時並精確預測未來颱風來襲時計劃流域可能形 成之洪水歷線,以供八掌溪流域防洪規劃之參考應用。 |
英文摘要 | The main purposes of this study are to analyze the appropriate typhoon rainfall prediction models and flood forecasting model for applying in Pa-chang River Basin, to investigate the influences of results generated by typhoon rainfall prediction models to the routing of runoff model, and subsequently to establish a set of rapid and accurate rainfall-runoff forecasting model for linking up meteorologic and hydrologic processes in the project area. Appropriate approaches of statistical analysis is firstly proposed in this study so as to build up the suitable typhoon rainfall prediction model. Typhoon data of hitting Pa-chang River Basin in recent years are based for sorting the classification of typhoon paths, then rainfall influencing regions are zoned, rainfall prediction diagrams are set up, isohyetal curves of the study area are drawn, and consequently, the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall for different typhoon paths can be determined objectively. Next, theoretical analysis for physical mechanism of circulative and topographic rainfalls are then studied to estimate the relationship among typhoon rainfall with basin topography, typhoon location and intensity. The standardized typhoon rainfall-pattern hyetograph can finally be drawn for applying as a dynamic input function to the hydrologic system. Rainfall hyetographs estimated by the typhoon rainfall prediction models and Kriging approach can be regarded as input functions to the applicable runoff model for flood simulation. The proposed runoff model in this study is the modified kinematic-wave conceptual plane model. Extended Kalman filter algorithm is added to the runoff model for real-time modifying and updating the system state so as to be applied in flood estimation and prediction. The linking rainfall-runoff forecasting model is to estimate as early and accurate as possible the most likely resulting flood hydrograph when a typhoon is hitting to the project basin. The analytical method proposed in this study can be applied to flood-mitigation planning in Pa-chang River Basin. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。