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題名 | 克利金法與條件模擬推估濁水溪沖積扇水力傳導係數空間之不確定性=Kriging Method and Conditional Simulation for Estimating the Spatial Uncertainty of Hydraulic Conductivity in the Alluvial Fan of Choushui River |
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作者 | 張誠信; 劉振宇; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷期 | 47:3 2001.09[民90.09] |
頁次 | 頁17-30 |
分類號 | 443.67 |
關鍵詞 | 一般克利金法; 模擬退火演算法; 逐步高斯模擬法; 實現值; 碎塊效應; Ordinary kriging; Simulated annealing; Sequential gaussian simulation; Realization; Nugget effect; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文研究以一般克利金法及條件模擬法之模擬退火演算法及逐步高斯模擬法推估濁水溪沖積扇水力傳導係數的空間結構型式,以空間圖形分佈與敘述統計、頻率分佈、半變異元、檢定等統計方法比較及探討其差異,並評估該參數之空間不確定性。研究結果顯示由水力傳導係數之空間分佈情況,大致上可以發現一般克利金法對於空間之推估較為平滑,平滑效應隨碎塊效應增加,逐步高斯模擬法平均實現值之整體空間變化,接近一般克利金法,但半變異元存在碎塊效應,該方法可以改善平滑現象,展現觀測值之高變異性,以符合現地狀況。模擬退火演算法之平均實現值,雖然可以展現空間之變異性,但大部分頻率分佈過度集中及明顯負偏,且易受碎塊效應高及影響範圍短之因素,使空間變化雜亂。 |
英文摘要 | The study adopts the ordinary kriging (OK) and the conditional simulations, simulated annealing (SA) and sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs), to evaluate the spatial patterns of hydraulic conductivity in the Choushui River alluvial fan of Taiwan. The spatial variability and uncertainty of the estimated hydraulic conductivity is assessed and compared by spatial maps and statistical methods, including descriptive statistics, frequency histogram, semivariogram, statistical test. Using OK to construct the spatial maps of hydraulic conductivity distribution, it shows that the smoothing effect on the actual variability will increase as the nugget effect increasing. The spatial maps constructed by sGs show similar hydraulic conductivity distribution to OK but preserve high spatial variability of the in-situ measurement data. The SA realizations show significant negative skewness and over concentrated of the frequency distribution and become messy if the semivariogram has high nugget effect and short correlation length. |
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