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題 名 | 颱洪逐時區域平均兩量最佳化估計之研究 |
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作 者 | 王如意; 李如晃; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷 期 | 39:3 1993.09[民82.09] |
頁 次 | 頁13-30 |
分類號 | 443.1 |
關鍵詞 | 逐時區域平均兩量; 估計; 颱洪; 區域一般克利金法; 尺度氣候半變異圖; 尺度估計變異數; Hourly areal mean rainfall; Block ordinary kriging method; Scaled climatological semivariogram; Scaled estimated varicance; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究之主要目的乃探討如何精確且迅速地推估颱洪逐時區域平均雨量,期能使降雨-逕流模式有較高可信度之輸入。文中以區域一般克利金法為研析方法,並以曾文溪流域之歷年颱洪逐時雨量為驗證資料,與目前較常用於求取區域平均雨量之估算法作一比較。 於半變異圖分析時,假設降雨過程為一種二維且具等向性之隨機變量域,並將降雨資料標準化與利用交叉驗證法,以求取描述降雨空間特性之尺度氣候半變異圖。因此,對即時降雨事件而言,祇需求得降雨時刻所有測站雨量之變異數,再結合尺度氣候半變異圖,即可以區域一般克利金法迅速估計其逐時區域平均雨量及估計變異數。 於研析過程中因考慮到曾文溪流域界外鄰近測站受地形之阻隔,與流域內之水文氣象條件略有不同,故比較含流域界外鄰近測站及僅具流域內測站克利金尺度估計變異數之變化情形。由結果顯示,若僅採用曾文溪流域內之測站進行逐時區域平均雨量估算時仍不失其精度。 最後,並與目前較常用於估算區域平均雨量法之徐昇氏多邊形法、雙軸法及高度平衡多邊形法等方法作一比較,得知以區域一般克利金法所估算之逐時區域平均雨量具有最小尺度估計變異數,而比傳統方法所得者更能代表區域之逐時平均雨量。 |
英文摘要 | The main purpose of this research is to purpose a simple procedure for the optimal estimation of typhoon hourly areal mean rainfall as the accurate input of rainfall-runoff model. The block ordinary Kriging method is adopted and compared with other methods for the estimation of hourly areal mean rainfall in the Tsengwen River Basin. In semivariogram analysis, the rainfall is assumed to be a two-dimensional and isotropic random field. The computation and identification of scaled climatological variogram is completed by using normalized rainfall data and the cross validation method. After the variance of hourly rainfall is calculated, the variogram model of the hourly rainfall of interested site is completely specified and ready for estimation. The Kriging scaled estimation error variances for stations located inside and outside the Tsengwen River Basin were compared. Results show that they are not significantly different. The scaled estimation error variance is used as a tool to assess the performance of the four different estimating methods including Thiessen polygons method, two axes method, height-balance polygons method and block ordinary Kriging method. By comparison, the block ordinary Kriging method is better than the others. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。