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頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 衛生掩埋場垃圾滲出水多變量時間序列預測模式=Multivariables Forecasting and Time Series Modeling of Leachate Production in a Sanitary Landfill |
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作 者 | 陳昶憲; 黃偉民; | 書刊名 | 中國環境工程學刊 |
卷 期 | 7:3 1997.09[民86.09] |
頁 次 | 頁271-280 |
分類號 | 445.545 |
關鍵詞 | 垃圾滲出水; 時間序列分析; 即時預測; 離群值偵測; Leachate production; Time series analysis; Real-time forecasting; Outlier detection; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文利用時序分析,預測垃圾掩埋場之滲出水量,並探討降雨量與垃圾總量對其 影響。由建立滲出水單變量、滲出水與降雨量雙變量及滲出水與降雨量、垃圾總量三變量之 月時序模式過程中發現,當月之降雨量與前第三、四個月之垃圾總量,對當月之滲出水量最 有影響,而降雨量之重要性又高於垃圾總量。於預測驗證結果亦得到,無論是否考慮參數即 時更新,與是否進行離群值校正,雙變量之滲出水、降雨量 TFN L-R(1,1,0) 模式為穩定且 最準確之模式。 |
英文摘要 | The objective of this paper is to apply time series analysis for forecasting leachate production in a landfill site. The influence of precipitation and amount of refuse on leachate production is also investigated by the same approach. The results show that monthly precipitation and the amount of refuse with a three- to four- month burial age are the most influential factors of leachate production each month. Furthermore, the effect of precipitatin is greater than the amount of leachate. A similar conclusion is obtained by comparison of verificati on results from model forecasting. With or without update of model parameters and outlier detection, the bivariable forecasting model of leachate and precipitation (TFN LR(1,1,0) is the most stationary and the most accurate compared with single-variable or trivariable models. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。