頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 不確定情況下之決策=Decision Policy under Uncertainty |
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作者 | 高凱聲; | 書刊名 | 管理與資訊學報 |
卷期 | 2 1997.04[民86.04] |
頁次 | 頁23-53 |
分類號 | 494.542 |
關鍵詞 | 風險; 企業; 機率分配; 經濟分析; 效用; 決策樹; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 一、風險對企業來說是一種困境或是一種傷害,在經營上則視為損失發生之可能性 ,亦是不利經營情況發生的機率,在統計學上是以標準差來表示。企業在作某一決策方案時 應考慮予以量化,也只有在量化情形下才會產生貨幣價值產生,如此方可以償付矩陣來作決策 。 二、風險不能僅以標準差的絕對值來推論其大小,最好用變量係數來表示,此外,亦得配合 預期效用理論才更臻完整。 三、本文採效用函數來分析各種風險行為,其因為人們行為不同而有不同形態;如風險中性 者效用函數呈一直線,風險逃避者效用函數曲線凹面向下,風險喜好者之效用函數曲線是凹 面向上形態。人們面對風險,為求得與確實情況下有相同預期貨幣價值,其可利用等值因子 來做調整。 四、企業家亦可利用決策樹來作為風險決策工具,其是採用各種不同步驟來做決策的一種分 析工具。此外,利用電腦進行敏感性分析亦是目前企業最常利用且是既便宜又便捷之分析法。 |
英文摘要 | 1.Risk, Sort of Adversity or Vitiation to an Enterprise, is Regarded a s the Possibility of the Incidences of Loss and the Probability of Incidences of Situation Counter-Conducive to Operation which is Indicated by Standard Difference in Statistics. On Making a Policy, an Enterprise Should Consider to Make the Project Measured in Terms of Quantity, Only under Measure Can Monetary Value be Produced and Policy be Made by Pay-off Matrix. 2.It's Far from enough to Measure the Probabilities of Risk by the Absolute Value of Standard Difference. Better Would it be to be Indicated by Variation Coefficient. In Addition, it Will be More Complete if Further Verified by Expectative Utility theory. 3.The Following Article Applies Utility Function to Analyze Every Kind of Risky Behaviors, As People Behave Differently, There is Quite a Range of Different patterns of Behavior; for Instance, the Utility Function of the Risk neutral Shows a Straight Line, That of the Risk escapee a Curve Line with Concave Side Down, and That of the Risk Enthusiast a Curve Line with Concave Side Up. People, Confronting with Risk, may Make use of Certainty-Equalent Factor for Adjustement to Maintain the Same Prospective Monetary Value as That Extant under Actually Normal Situation. 4.The Entrepreneur May Also Adopt Decision the Tree as Tool for Risk Policy which is an Analytical Tool Applying Diverse Steps to Make Policy. Besides, Analyzing Sensitivity by Computer, Also an Analytic Method, is Low-Priced, Convenient, And Now Most Frequently used. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。