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題名 | 臺灣省汽車客運量之時間序列預測模式=Time Series Forecasting Models for Taiwan Bus Transprotation Capacity |
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作者 | 連聖皓; 朱宜寧; 謝邦昌; Lien, San-hao; Chu, I-ning; Shia, Ben-chang; |
期刊 | 輔仁管理評論 |
出版日期 | 19970300 |
卷期 | 4:1 1997.03[民86.03] |
頁次 | 頁31-52 |
分類號 | 557.335 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 汽車客運量; 時間序列; 預測模式; Passenger-kilometer; Time series; Forecasting model; |
中文摘要 | 本研究採用時間序列的分析理論,研究臺灣省汽車客運、公民營公車客運、省營 汽車客運為研究對象。搜集民國七十年一月至八十二年十二月各月延人公里的月資料為觀察 值,作一預測模式然後將預測值與實際值作比較。並進一步預測八十三及八十四年各月數據 ,藉此瞭解臺灣省汽車客運業的營運狀況及其潛在的問題,以提供客運業者參考。分析結果 顯示民營汽車客運的延人公里在水平區間發展,但長途客運里程增加、客運人數減少。公民 營公車客運的延人公里、行駛里程、客運人數均減少,此乃受自用小客車、機車數量增加所 致。而省營汽車客運的延人公里、行駛里程、客運人數也有減少的趨勢,但此只受自用小客 車增加的影響並未受機車數量的影響,尤其是八十三年及八十四年的預測者已不及七十年的 二分之一,此點值得業者深思。 |
英文摘要 | This research applies Time Series Analysis to analyze the operation of private, private/public and provincial owned bus company in Taiwan. Monthly data of passenger-kilometer, from January 1981 to Decemer 1993, are collected to forecast the trends of 1994 and 1995 and to compare those forecasted values with the actual values. The results shows that the passenger-kilometer of private owned bus operator has developed steadily in a horizontal perspective; however, the mileage increased as the numbers of passenger descreased. The decrease of passenger-kilometer, mileage, and passenger numbers of both public and private operators can be attributed to the increase of private cars and motorcycles. However, the decreasing number for provincial operators is only affected by the increase of private cars. Meanwhile, we should notice that the forecasted values of 1994 and 1995 have dropped to one half of the 1981s. Thus, bus operators should pay considerable attention to it. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。