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題 名 | 房地產交易市場上銷售期間之研究--臺灣房屋銷售成交機率的實證研究=Marketing Duration of the Real Estate Brokerage in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 李春長; | 書刊名 | 政大地政學報 |
卷 期 | 1:1 1996.12[民85.12] |
頁 次 | 頁51-72 |
分類號 | 554.89 |
關鍵詞 | 折扣率底線; 搜尋成本; 銷售期間; 成交機率; Minimum discount rate; Search costs; Marketing duration; Listing price; Duration of endorsement; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文首先從賣方折扣率底線的觀點開始建立一房屋搜尋模型,一方面說明賣方搜尋成本和買方所要求折扣率分配對銷售期間和成交機率的影響,另一方面提供未來修正理論模型的基礎。接著,本文使用信義房屋仲介公司1990-1993年實際成交與未成交資料和利用 logit模型來估計房屋的成交機率。 從實證結果,本文亦得到,訂價與委託底價之比率愈大,可能顯示賣方所願意提供的降價幅度是一不斷的變動過程,亦可能顯示訂價訂的太高,嚇走一些潛在的購買者,平均成交機率較低。屋齡較久、所在樓層為1樓、房屋現況為租賃和高總價一組房屋,其成交機率較高。房間數愈多、委託期間愈長、賣屋原因若為不急著賣著,房屋現況為自用、低總價一組的房屋和臺北市郊區,則成交機率較低。另外,浴廁數、所在樓層為6樓以上、停車位和臺北市區中心,其係數並未達顯著水準。 本文利用logit模型來估計房屋成交的機率,釐清臺灣房地產交易的一些現象,值得日後研究者更進一步的探討。由於本文使用資料只有3年多,且又未包括77年和78年臺灣房價狂飆時的資料,因此本文並未探討總體景氣變動時的問題,如果資料的年度夠長,應處理總體環境的變動對銷售期間的影響,此乃本文之後續研究。 |
英文摘要 | This paper employs search theory to study the relationships between the list price, the transaction price, and marketing duration in the Taiwan real estate market. Theoretically, buyer uses the a set of criteria together, with the listing price to develop an offer which is based on a (guest) minimum discount rate guideline from the listing price to determine a price that will be acceptable to the seller. We attempt to describe the impact of pricing strategies 9seller's minimum discount rate) and marketing duration by incorporating the minimum discount rate in a search model. The derived search model indicates the presence of a positive relationship between the minimum discount rate and marketing duration; an inverse relationship between marketing duration and minimum discount rate; an inverse relationship between searching costs and minimum discount rate; and a positive relationship between the buyer's average discount rate of distribution function and minimum discount rate. The study uses data collected during the 1990-1993 time period and provided by Hsin Yi Realty Co.. This paper employs logit model to estimate probability of a sale. We can attain: firstly, the higher the ratio of the listing price against the reservation price, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duration; secondly, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duration, the higher the ratio of the listing price against the reservation price; thirdly, the longer the longer the period of consignment, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duration; and the fourth, if the seller is not in a hurry to sell, then the marketing duration becomes longer. Our empirical findings verify and support all the above stated analyses. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。