頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 臺灣木瓜經濟結構性變動之實證分析=An Empirical Analysis on the Structural Change of Taiwan Papaya Economy |
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作者 | 萬鍾汶; Wann, Joyce Jong-wen; |
期刊 | 農業經濟半年刊 |
出版日期 | 19961200 |
卷期 | 60 1996.12[民85.12] |
頁次 | 頁31-61 |
分類號 | 435.354 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 木瓜; 輪點毒素病; 結構性變動; 卡門濾波; Papaya; Ringspot; Structural change; Kalman filter; |
中文摘要 | 木瓜為本省極具發展潛力之水果產業之一。近年來由於木瓜輪點毒素病的侵襲,在缺乏對病害的有效控制下,病變不斷地發生,因而輪點病素病被視為木瓜產業發展嚴重的阻礙。本文採用狀態-空間模型與卡門濾波迴覆參數法,探討自輪點毒素病發生以來是否造成木瓜產業經濟面之結構性變動,進而瞭解木瓜產業經濟之特性。 由F統計量及概似比分別檢定木瓜供給與需求結構參數之固定性,結果發現木瓜供給之各種價格與成本彈性曾於1974-83年間有隨機性而非系統性的變異。需求面則檢定出1979年時有系統性參數結構的改變。整體而言,本省木瓜之供給與需求對價格變動均缺乏彈性,且需求對價格的反應幅度遠大於供給的反應。 |
英文摘要 | The Papaya Ringspot virus has placed tremendous damages on the productions of Papaya and constrained the development of the Papaya industry since 1975. This study intends to solve the changing structure problems of Papaya by adopting the state-space models in conjunction with an optimal estimated generating iterative algorithm, the Kalman filter, to analyze the impact and structural change of Papaya Ringspot on the Papaya industry in Taiwan. The null hypothesis of no general structural change on Taiwan papaya supply cannot be rejected for the interval of 1974-83 by applying the F-statistic test. A systematic structural change on Taiwan papaya demand is identified to have occurred in 1979. It implies that Papaya Ringspot had significantly affected the supply and demand structure of papaya in alternative ways. In general, both the supply of and the demand for papaya are inelastic, and the supply is less responsive to changing prices than the demand. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。