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- An Adaptive Nonlinear State Space Model Applied to Modelling Epidemics
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題名 | An Adaptive Nonlinear State Space Model Applied to Modelling Epidemics= |
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作者 | Jones,Richard H.; Nicholls,Des F.; |
期刊 | Statistica Sinica |
出版日期 | 19910700 |
卷期 | 1:2 1991.07[民80.07] |
頁次 | 頁389-400 |
分類號 | 319.712 |
語文 | eng |
關鍵詞 | 狀態空間理論; 非線性微分方程; 傳染理論; 適應估計; State space models; Nonlinear differential equations; Kalman filter; Epidemics; Adaptive estimation; |
英文摘要 | A state space model is developed for a system of nonlinear differential equations with observations consisting of nonlinear functions of the state variables. This is applied to modelling gonorrhea transmission in a heterosexual population. Variable transformations are used to keep the incidence rates in the interval zero to one and the unknown parameters in the proper ranges. A refinement of the model allows adaptively varying contact rates. The Kalman filter is used to calculate an approximate likelihood, and nonlinear optimization is used to obtain approximate maximum likelihood estimates. |
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