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| 題 名 | Dynamic Dry-period Operation Policy for Multipurpose Reservoir=乾季時期多目標水庫動態運轉策略之研究 |
|---|---|
| 作 者 | 徐享崑; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
| 卷 期 | 37:1 1991.03[民80.03] |
| 頁 次 | 頁1-18 |
| 分類號 | 443.96 |
| 關鍵詞 | 水庫; 乾季時期; 運轉; |
| 語 文 | 英文(English) |
| 中文摘要 | 臺灣地區之降雨量在時間分佈上極不勻稱,以致枯水期間(每年11月至翌年4月)經常面臨缺水的威脅,尤以南部地區為甚。為有效掌握水庫在枯水期之供水能力,本文提出一套動態且實用的水庫運轉策略,該運轉策略之重點在於能預先合理調配水庫水量之供應,避免缺水集中發生在枯水期末,使得在枯水期內之每一旬皆能分擔部份之乾旱缺水衝擊。 本文以「曾文及烏山頭串聯水庫系統」為理論與實施例應用研究對象。先對整個水庫系統進行模擬分析,根據模擬之結果,以迴歸分析求出全年各旬之水庫蓄水量與總缺水量之相關性並找出判定係數最高的一旬,視為水庫營運管理之關鍵旬。再用ARIMA模式預測曾文水庫之旬入流量,然後以DDDP模式演算兩座水庫在未來各旬之最佳放水量。 由於DDDP模式在以往之研究及應用上,尚存有若干瑕疵,本文於是改良該模式之「水庫末端狀態」及「水庫決策模變數」。事實證明改良後之DDDP模式較具實用價值。最後,比較DDDP模式與水庫現行規線模擬模式之優劣,結果顯示由DDDP模式求出之放水決策,較能符合水庫營運之實質要求。 |
| 英文摘要 | Rainfall in Taiwan varies dramatically with seasons. There is always a threat of drought during the dry season. In order to improve the utility of reservoir water yields, this paper proposes a practical process for release policy of multipurpose reservoirs. This policy can manipulate in advance the reasonable quantity of releases from the reservoir, consequently it can alleviate the deficit of water supply occurring concentrically in some intervals and reduce the impact of drought within the whole dry season. The method is applied to the system of Tsengwen0Wushantou serial reservoirs in southern Taiwan as an example. First, a simulation analysis based upon the existing system policies is performed. According to the simulation outputs, the “Key Ten-day” is selected by using regression analysis. Secondly, the inflow series of Tsengwen reservoir in every ten-day interval is forecasted by using ARIMA model. Finally, the optimum releases of forthcoming 36 ten-day periods for both reservoirs are obtained by the application of DDDP model. To overcome the DDDP limitations int eh applications, an “Imaginary Reservoir” concept is created to modify and adjust the model’s computation procedures for the final state and decision variables of the reservoirs. Results show that the modify DDDP model has more efficient than the original DDDP model. At last, the difference between DDDP model and existing operation rules is compared. The results indicate that the modified DDDP model synchronized with predicted inflow series offer an efficient operation policy which satisfy the demands of analyzed reservoir system. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。