查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
| 題 名 | 川普關稅政策對全球貿易及美國外交利益的影響:新現實主義和權力轉移理論的分析=The Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on Global Trade and U.S. Foreign Interests: An Analysis of Neorealism and Power Transition Theory |
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| 作 者 | 楊惟任; 張煒澤; | 書刊名 | 科際整合月刊 |
| 卷 期 | 10:10 2025.10[民114.10] |
| 頁 次 | 頁1-18 |
| 分類號 | 574.52 |
| 關鍵詞 | 新現實主義; 權力轉移理論; 川普主義; 美國優先; 對等關稅; Neo-realism; Power transition theory; Trumpism; America first; Reciprocal tariff; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| 中文摘要 | 川普以「美國優先」為戰略,對多數貿易夥伴施加高額關稅,並特別針對中國採取懲罰性措施,其政策目標在於縮減貿易逆差、推動製造業回流以及鞏固國內政治支持。然而,這些作為卻可能全面引發貿易戰,不僅削弱美國的領導威信,也對既有的多邊貿易秩序造成衝擊。本文以新現實主義與權力轉移理論為理論框架,探討川普關稅政策對全球貿易及美國外交利益的影響。研究結果顯示,川普政策削弱世界貿易組織等多邊體系的功能,導致全球貿易量萎縮與供應鏈重組,更關鍵的是,美國與盟友間的互信顯著下滑,反而為中國帶來擴展國際影響力的契機。整體而言,川普的關稅政策雖在短期內符合新現實主義強調的權力維持邏輯,長遠而言卻損及美國的霸權地位與外交利益。新現實主義認為,在無政府狀態下,國家行為以生存與相對利益為導向,川普的關稅措施可視為美國藉由經濟手段維持全球優勢的戰略工具,權力轉移理論則指出,新興強權的崛起將挑戰既有霸權,美國透過貿易與科技封鎖試圖延緩中國的追趕。雖然兩種理論有助於解釋川普的戰略動機,但均忽略國內政治因素。 |
| 英文摘要 | Trump adopted "America First" as a strategic doctrine, imposing high tariffs on most trading partners and particularly targeting China with punitive measures. The stated objectives of these policies were to reduce trade deficits, promote the reshoring of manufacturing, and consolidate domestic political support. However, such actions risked triggering widespread trade wars, which not only undermined U.S. leadership credibility but also inflicted severe disruptions on the existing multilateral trade order. This study employs neorealism and power transition theory as analytical frameworks to examine the impact of Trump's tariff policies on global trade and U.S. foreign interests. The findings indicate that Trump's policies weakened the functionality of multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization, leading to declines in global trade volume and supply chain restructuring. More critically, the erosion of trust between the United States and its allies created opportunities for China to expand its international influence. Overall, while Trump's tariff policies align with the realist logic of power maintenance, they ultimately undermine America's long-term hegemonic position and diplomatic interests. From the neorealist perspective, in an anarchic international system where states prioritize survival and relative gains, Trump's tariff measures can be viewed as strategic tools through which the U.S. sought to preserve its global advantage via economic means. Power transition theory, in turn, posits that the rise of emerging powers inevitably challenges established hegemons; Trump's trade and technological restrictions sought to slow China's ascent. Although both theories help explain Trump's strategic rationale, they neglect the role of domestic political considerations. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。