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| 題 名 | 政治紛擾下地方財政的斷續均衡分析?以臺北市政府預算為例=Punctuated Equilibrium Analysis of Local Finances under Political Turmoil? Taking the Taipei City Budget as an Example |
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| 作 者 | 郭宗城; 莊文忠; | 書刊名 | 科際整合月刊 |
| 卷 期 | 10:9 2025.09[民114.09] |
| 頁 次 | 頁93-121 |
| 分類號 | 566.2 |
| 關鍵詞 | 政策變遷; 斷續均衡; 有限理性; 隨機過程; 制度摩擦; Policy change; Punctuated equilibrium; Bounded rationality; Stochastic processes; Institutional friction; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| 中文摘要 | 公共政策可說是政府選擇作為或不作為之各種活動的總稱,在實際運作過程中,有 些政策長期呈現穩定持續的狀態,有些政策則時而出現劇烈變革,Jones 與 Baumgartner 提出「斷續均衡理論」(Punctuated Equilibrium Theory, PET),希望能在多元主義政治 體系下,解釋政策為什麼變遷、以及如何變遷,並利用統計方法加以描述與檢證。在解 釋政策為何變遷方面,此一理論修正了漸進決策模型的不足之處,運用了有限理性下的 注意力限制、新訊息的介入及制度摩擦等概念來解釋政策為何變遷;而在政策變遷所呈 現的態樣方面,兩位作者則開發出隨機過程的實證方法來檢視研究標的所呈現的斷續與 均衡情形。 本文擬以此一理論為基礎,透過既有預算資料,及前述的隨機過程方法,在中央和 地方政府有關全民健保費用分攤爭議事件下,分析臺北市近 24 年來在馬英九、郝龍斌 及柯文哲等三位市長任內的預算斷續與均衡情形,並詮釋預算斷續的發生過程,期能建 構此斷續均衡理論在台灣政治脈絡下的量化分析模式,讓公共政策變遷的分析視角更為 豐富。 |
| 英文摘要 | Public policy can be broadly defined as the range of activities that the government chooses to do or not to do. In practice, some policies remain stable and continuous over long periods, while others undergo abrupt and significant changes. Jones and Baumgartner introduced Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET) to explain why and how policies change within a pluralist political system, employing statistical methods for description and verification. In addressing the reasons for policy change, PET refines the limitations of the incremental decision-making model, incorporating concepts such as bounded rationality’s attention constraints, the impact of new information, and institutional friction to elucidate the dynamics of policy change. Regarding the appearance of policy changes, the two authors developed an empirical method of stochastic processes to examine the punctuated equilibrium situations observed in their research subjects. Based on this theory, this article aims to analyze the budget data of Taipei City over 24 year period, spanning the administrations of three mayors—Ma Ying-jeou, Hao Lung-bin, and Ko Wen-zhe—using existing budget data and the stochastic process method. The analysis focuses on the dispute between the central and local governments regarding the cost-sharing of National Health Insurance, illustrating the punctuated equilibrium process in the Taipei City Government’s budget. This study seeks to construct a quantitative analysis model of punctuated equilibrium theory within Taiwan's political context, thereby enriching the analytical perspective for understanding public policy changes. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。