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| 題 名 | 支援氣候韌性調適治理框架之決策方法--以雲林縣農業為例=Supporting Decision Making for Climate Resilient Adaptation Governance Framework: A Case Study of Agriculture in Yunlin County |
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| 作 者 | 吳淑涵; 陳奕如; 王琪芳; 童慶斌; 魏勝德; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
| 卷 期 | 71:2 2025.06[民114.06] |
| 頁 次 | 頁1-21 |
| 分類號 | 430.1637 |
| 關鍵詞 | 氣候變遷; 實體風險衡量; 韌性調適規劃; 多準則評估; Climate change; Physical risk measurement; Resilience adaptation planning; Multi-criteria evaluation; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| DOI | 10.29974/JTAE.202506_71(2).0001 |
| 中文摘要 | 氣候變遷加劇極端氣候事件的頻率和強度,造成不容小覷的實體風險,威脅生命財產與 生態環境。有效的韌性調適措施是因應氣候變遷的關鍵,也一直是各界研究的焦點議題。本 文基於過去相關研究提出之韌性調適規劃框架,分別於風險界定、風險衡量與風險管理三階 段進一步提出具體且可操作之支援決策方法。首先透過風險模板分析,初步以定性方式界定 風險成因,治理單位可根據實體風險界定結果,針對危害、暴露與脆弱度分別構思改善方向; 接著並依據風險評估所需資料的完整度及不確定性決定適合之風險衡量方法;最後則透過多 準則評估法排序調適選項,進而擬定因應之韌性調適策略來管理風險。本研究最主要貢獻為 提出之系統性方法可作為受限於成本、時間或科學研究能力而無法執行量化風險評估的組織 參考用。本文並以雲林縣農作物為案例,示範透過定性風險界定結果擬定調適行動的方法, 以驗證可行性,未來可再視需求進一步量化評估風險並修正調適措施。 |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing significant physical risks that threaten lives, property, and ecosystems. Effective resilience-based adaptation measures are crucial for addressing climate change and have long been a focal point of research. Building upon existing resilience adaptation planning frameworks, this study proposes decision-support methods for policymakers at the three stages: risk identification, risk assessment, and risk management. The approach begins with a qualitative risk template analysis to preliminarily identify the causes of risks. Based on the results of physical risk identification, policymakers could devise improvement strategies targeting hazards, exposure, and vulnerabilities. Subsequently, the completeness and uncertainty of the data required dominate the choice of risk assessment methods. Thirdly, multi-criteria evaluation is employed to rank the adaptation options, formulating resiliencebased adaptation strategies to manage risks. The main contribution of this research comes from the proposed systematic approach, which provides a practical reference for responsible authorities with limited resources, time, or scientific expertise to conduct feasible risk assessments. To demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methods, this study applies the framework to a case study of crop production in Yunlin County, showcasing how the qualitative risk identification results steer the formulation of adaptation strategies. Future efforts may build on this approach by conducting more detailed quantitative risk assessments as needed and accordingly refining the adaptation measures. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。