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題 名 | 新北市建築物火災人員死亡現象統計型預測模式之建構=Research on Constructing the Statistical Models of Predicting Life Casualties in Building Fires in New Taipei City |
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作 者 | 黃亭瑜; 黃德清; 盧鏡臣; 林元祥; | 書刊名 | 防災科學 |
卷 期 | 1 2016.11[民105.11] |
頁 次 | 頁25-51 |
分類號 | 548.316 |
關鍵詞 | 建築物火災; 關聯性分析; 二元邏輯斯迴歸分析; 區別分析; Building fires; Chi-square test; Binary logistic regression; Discriminant analysis; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究主要目的係建構建築物火災人員死傷解釋模式。首先自文獻探討中歸納影響人員於火災發生時之死傷、存亡影響要因,復以2010年至2014年5月間新北市建築物火災人員死傷案件之官方資料進行實證調查,其後以關聯性分析觀察與依變項關係較為密切之自變項種類,接著將其代入二元邏輯斯迴歸及區別分析中進行逐步分析與模式建構。於所建構之模型中,顯著影響人員死亡之因素包含「年齡」、「意識清醒度」、「逃生先機」、「內部裝修」與「堆積雜物」,整體分類預測正確率分別高達88.89%及87.4%。研究最後依據分析結果提出結論與建議,以供相關政府機關、學術機構卓參。 |
英文摘要 | The main purpose of this study is to construct the explaining models of life casualties in building fires. Factors that influence whether people will survive when fires break out are firstly generalized from the reviewing of different kinds of literature. Then, an empirical study using New Taipei City government’s official document and data collecting from fire cases during 2010 to May, 2014 is conducted. The study performs the chi-square test prior to regression in order to figure out the varieties of the independent variables which closely relate to dependent variable, thus applies binary logistic regression and discriminant analysis to construct the models stepwise. The convergent models from the final step display the factors significantly influencing life casualties in building fires are age, conscious state, response condition, interior decoration and hoarding, and the overall correct predicted percentage are 88.89% and 87.4% respectively. Ultimately, this study provides some suggestions in law enforcing, public education and fire prevention planning. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。