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題名 | 曾文溪上游地區1970年至2014年年一日最大雨量之頻率分析=Frequency Analysis of Annual 1-Day Maximum Rainfall in the Upstream Drainage Area of Zeng-Wen River |
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作者 | 沈少文; | 書刊名 | 作物、環境與生物資訊 |
卷期 | 13:1 2016.03[民105.03] |
頁次 | 頁1-12 |
分類號 | 354.7722 |
關鍵詞 | 年一日最大雨量; 頻率分析; 重現期距; 曾文溪; Annual one-day maximum rainfall; Frequency analysis; Return period; Zeng-Wen River; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究分析曾文溪上游地區馬頭山、里佳與水山等三雨量測站 1970 至 2014 年年一日最大雨量,使用 Gumbel 分配計算來推測重現期距 1.11 年至 1,000 年年一日最大雨量,同時建立年一日最大雨量 95%和 99%信賴區間。研究發現,馬頭山雨量測站年一日最大雨量歷年平均數 328 mm,中位數 300mm,里佳雨量測站歷年平均數 360 mm,中位數 320 mm,水山雨量測站歷年平均數 251mm,中位數 234 mm。又當重現期距 100 年時,馬頭山雨量測站年一日最大雨量 851mm,為歷年年一日最大雨量平均數 2.59 倍,里佳雨量測站年一日最大雨量 1,081 mm,為歷年年一日最大雨量平均數 3.00 倍,水山雨量測站年一日最大雨量 684 mm,為歷年年一日最大雨量平均數 2.72 倍。研究亦發現,馬頭山雨量測站平均 100 年出現一次的年一日最大雨量有 95%機率位於 654 mm 與 1,047mm 之間,里佳雨量測站平均 100 年出現一次的年一日最大雨量有 95%機率位於 810mm 與 1,352 mm 之間,水山雨量測站平均100 年出現一次的年一日最大雨量有 95%機率位於 521 mm 與 846 mm 之間。根據本研究關於曾文溪馬頭山、里佳與水山雨量測站頻率分析結果,將可有助於了解曾文溪上游地區水文環境。 |
英文摘要 | The aim of this study is to analyze annual 1-day maximum rainfall recorded at Ma-Tou-Shan, Li-Jia, and Shui-Shan rainfall stations in the upstream drainage area of Zeng-Wen river in the period of 1970-2014. The Gumbel probability distribution statistics was adopted to estimate annual 1-day maximum rainfall with the return periods of 1.11 to 1,000 years. This study also estimated the confidence intervals (95% and 99%) for annual 1-day maximum rainfall. Results showed that the mean annual 1-day maximum rainfall was 328 mm with the median of 300 mm at Ma-Tou-Shan station. The mean and the median values of annual 1-day maximum rainfall were 360 mm and 320 mm, respectively, at Li-Jia station, while these values were 251 mm and 234 mm, respectively, at Shui-Shan station. The annual 1-day maximum rainfall was 851 mm with return period of 100 years at Ma-Tou-Shan station, ca. 2.59 times of the mean annual 1-day maximum rainfall. The value was 1,081 mm at Li-Jia station and was three times of the mean annual 1-day maximum rainfall. It was 684 mm at Shui-Shan station, ca. 2.72 times of the mean annual 1-day maximum rainfall. The 95% confidence intervals for annual 1-day maximum rainfall with return period of 100 years at Ma-Tou-Shan, Li-Jia, and Shui-Shan stations were 654-1,047, 810-1,352, and 521-846 mm, respectively. The experimental results may help further understand the hydrological environment in the upstream drainage area of Zeng-Wen river. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。