查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 2016年南投縣立法委員選舉之預測:從政治版圖的觀點=The Research of Political Landscape for Nantou County |
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作 者 | 黃國敏; | 書刊名 | 中華行政學報 |
卷 期 | 17 2015.12[民104.12] |
頁 次 | 頁29-43 |
分類號 | 573.3 |
關鍵詞 | 南投縣; 立法委員; 選舉; 政治版圖; Nantou County; Legislator; Election; Political landscape; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 根據民國90 年以來四次立法委員選舉與一次補選結果各候選人所屬政黨得票數與得票率做點估計,泛藍全縣政治版圖約大於泛綠全縣政治版圖13.67%。若進一步分成兩區來做點估計,泛藍第一(烏溪)選區政治版圖約大於泛綠13.348%。泛藍第二(濁水溪)選區政治版圖約大於泛綠8.427%。若以區間估計來分析,泛藍第一(烏溪)選區政治版圖約大於泛綠13.345%,泛藍第二(濁水溪)選區政治版圖約大於泛綠8.42%。所以無論以點估計或是區間估計,其結果相當類似:泛藍第一(烏溪)選區政治版圖約大於泛綠13%,泛藍第二(濁水溪)選區政治版圖約大於泛綠8%。以各鄉鎮而言,泛綠在名間鄉(52.278%)最強,平均得票率超過五成,其次是、竹山鎮(48.42%)和魚池鄉(47.77%),平均得票率超過四成五,最弱的是仁愛山地鄉,平均得票率低於三成。相反地,泛藍在仁愛鄉最強,平均得票率超過七成,次強的是國姓鄉 (60.35%)、鹿谷鄉(59.704%)、草屯鎮 (59.24%)、集集鎮 (56.406%)和南投市(55.748%),最弱的是名間鄉(45.278%)、次弱的是竹山鎮(48.22%),得票率都低於五成。賴進貴、葉高華與張智昌的研究指出南投縣的 Moran’s I 為 0.4758,標準化的Z(I)為13.34,顯示南投縣具有強烈的地域差異,政治支持對象明顯顯著偏綠,惟本文分析結果卻顯示南投縣應屬泛藍稍強地區。自2014 年3 月太陽花學運以來,國內政治氛圍已經明顯改變為綠盛藍衰;2015 年1 月第二選區立委補選結果,國民黨提名剛卸任南投市長的許淑華(51.12%)只以4.96%得票率的差距打敗民進黨提名的前立法委員湯火聖(46.16%),可見相較於其他縣市,南投縣政黨藍大於綠的政治版圖只有少許改變,2016 年1 月立法委員選舉,兩個選區預期仍將維持大約13%與5-8%得票率的藍綠差距。 |
英文摘要 | With the votes for the candidates belonging to which party to do the point estimation using the legislative electoral data since 2001, the average number of votes is about 99,694 and the average percent is approximately 43.33% for the pan-green parties; and the average number of votes is about 129,821 and the average percent is approximately 56.67% for the pan-blue parties. Therefore, the pan-blue political landscape is 13.67% greater than the pan-green in Nantou County. When divided into two areas to do the point estimations that the pan-blue political landscape is 13.348% greater than the pan-green in the first constituency; and the pan-blue political landscape is 8.427% greater than the pan-green in the second constituency. When divided into two areas to do the interval estimations, the pan-blue political landscape is 13.345% greater than the pan-green in the first constituency; the pan-blue political landscape is 8.42% greater than the pan-green in the second constituency. The Moran's I is 0. 4758 and the Standardized Z (I) is 13.34, and they display there is a strong regional differences, and the political support is obviously tending to the dark green party according to the Lai Jingui, et al. But this paper shows that Nantou County is a pan-blue super region. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。