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題名 | 水庫上限對枯水期缺水風險之分析 |
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作者姓名(中文) | 鄭文明; | 書刊名 | 水利會訊 |
卷期 | 12 2009.06[民98.06] |
頁次 | 頁199-215 |
分類號 | 443.96 |
關鍵詞 | 水庫上限; 優化調配模式; 風險分析; Upper limit; Optimization model; Risk analysis; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究提出一方法及研究分析步驟,評估水庫防洪操作在不同之上限水位下,對枯水期間之缺水風險。本研究之工作方法首先蒐集之歷史颱風期間之水庫洪水入流歷線,及一些相關水利設施資料,藉由蒙地卡羅模擬法合成大量之流量歷線資料,放入水庫防洪操作模擬模式,得到防洪操作結束之水庫水位,並以此作為枯水期水庫優化調配之起始水位,接著由水庫優化調配模式,計算枯水期間之供水缺水指數,再經由風險分析之方法,估算得不同水庫上限下水庫之供水風險結果,以瞭解水庫上限對枯水期缺水風險之影響。本研究將上述分析步驟,應用於大漢溪流域供水系統以彰顯本模式之實用性。 |
英文摘要 | We propose a methodology and analytic process to assess the risk of water supply from reservoir of different upper limit in the drought period. In order to achieve goal of research of the risk analysis, first we collect the discharge data of flood events of typhoon into the reservoir to generate a large number of hydrograph by Monte Carol simulation method. These large numbers of hydrograph get into the input of the real time flood operation. After using the real time flood operation simulation model, the result of water level of reservoir is used to be the initial condition to the water distribution optimization model. By the optimization we could calculate the result of water supply (shortage index, SI). By above methodology and risk analysis we estimate the risk of shortage in different upper limit sets. In order to show how useful of this research process, we apply this methodology and analytic process to water supply system in Dahan creek basin. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。