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題 名 | 氣候變遷與設計流量關係之研究--以烏溪為例=Study on Relationship between Climate Change and Designing Flood : A Case in Wu River |
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作 者 | 邱建源; 謝平城; | 書刊名 | 水土保持學報 |
卷 期 | 42:4 2010.12[民99.12] |
頁 次 | 頁451-464 |
分類號 | 437.73 |
關鍵詞 | 氣候變遷; 氣壓; 非線性迴歸方法; 重現期距; Climate change; Atmosphere; Non-linear regression; Returns period; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 隨著氣候變遷,河川的流量、輸砂量不斷的擴大,以致於防砂壩、堤防的洪峰流量設計需 要全面性調整。為平衡經濟成本與防洪安全規模,依氣候變遷情形及趨勢提出合宜的流量設計 便顯得相當重要。本研究以台中縣與彰化縣交界線之烏溪流域作為研究範圍,採用雙重檢驗利 用主成份分析法,初步篩選溫度與氣壓諸參數,其中年最低溫度、月最低溫度、年平均氣壓及 月最低氣壓對雨量、流量之相關最為明顯,配合非線性迴歸方法推估溫度、溼度、氣壓三個因 子,和雨量、流量、流量重現期距,三個變量之間的關係。經由迴歸方法之p-value檢定後,初 步得知三個氣象因子溫度、溼度、氣壓與月降雨量有關,同時此三變量也與月平均日流量與月 平均日流量重現期距有關。 本文同時也深入研究氣候因子與流量重現期距之關係,先從年降雨量與氣壓之線性迴歸關 係式,推求雨量應擴大之值,且配合水文統計方法,推求出大肚橋流量站各重現期距,將二者 疊加,並利用降雨-逕流關係推求流量重現期距,結果得知年平均氣壓每上升30百帕,則洪峰 流量設計至少需調增五年的重現期距,不過年設計流量均無法採用當年之年平均氣壓,因此於 設計流量時,需考量此設計構造物將要沿用幾年,並預測未來之年平均氣壓上升之趨勢,加以 修正。 |
英文摘要 | With climate changes ,discharge of the rivers and watershed sediment increase , it is necessary imperative to readjust the flow design of embankment and check dam. Therefore, this article attempts to balance the economy and the safety on the flow design. The research site of the Wu River is located in the Wu River basin between Taichung County and Changhua County. The whole researchwork includes the Principle analysis to find out appropriate factors about temperature and atmosphere by choosing minimum, maximum or average value. This article investigates the correlation of relative humidity, temperature and atmosphere by regressing with discharge, rainfall and discharge return period. The regression objects include month data and year data. However, temperature and humidity are no relationship with one day maximum rainfalls, by regression p-value examine. Therefore, summer average temperature and one day maximum rainfall are regressed with discharge. In theoretical perspective, linear regression method is designed to figure out the relationship between rainfall and atmosphere by using yearly data. The rainfall of one hundred-year return period is added to the above value that predicts how the atmosphere affects the discharge return period. The result shows that in order to prevent the flood if atmosphere increases thirty hectopascal , the flood return period would at least increase five year. So the designer should predict future yearly average atmosphere trend and consider the design structure’s durable years, and then design the flood return period. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。