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題名 | 臺灣事故傷害對潛在生命年數、工作年數及社會經濟損失影響探討=The Effect of Accidents on Potential Life Lost, Working Life Lost and Social Economic Loss in Taiwan |
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作者 | 林正祥; 劉士嘉; 劉于琪; | 書刊名 | 人口學刊 |
卷期 | 48 2014.06[民103.06] |
頁次 | 頁141-171 |
分類號 | 516.2 |
關鍵詞 | 事故傷害; Lee-Carter模式; ARIMA模式; 潛在生命年數損失; 工作年數損失; Accident; Lee-Carter model; ARIMA model; Years of potential life lost; Working life lost; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究利用衛生福利部所提供的「死因資料」,以事故傷害為例,就其影響潛在生命年數及社會經濟損失長期趨勢進行分析探討。除利用Lee-Carter模式探討1985-2009年事故傷害死亡率變化及預測未來趨勢外,並利用該模式求得之各年死亡率高低趨勢以非線性模式配適,並預測未來數年各年齡層事故傷害死亡率。另,針對事故傷害影響推算各年預期生命年數損失,以人力資本法算出其在各年所造成的工作年數社會經濟損失,最後利用時間序列ARIMA模式探討並預測事故傷害經濟損失變動趨勢。研究結果發現自1985-2009年,25年來事故傷害死亡率呈現上升再下降趨勢且在1989年達最高,每10萬人口就有70.04人死於事故傷害,若排除1999年因921大地震及2009年的莫拉克風災年份,在1989年後呈下降趨勢,另Lee-Carter模式所求得之各年死亡率高低趨勢以時間序列及非線性模式預測2010及2011年之事故傷害死亡率均得到良好的配適。就社會經濟損失方面,以2000年臺灣地區年中人口數為基準,在事故傷害方面所造成的每千人口潛在生命年數損失於1989年、1999年及2009年分別為31.13、21.44及10.06年;每千人口潛在工作年數損失為29.56、17.55及7.34年。另外,事故傷害死亡的社會經濟損失經2009年「消費者物價指數」(Consumer Price Index, 簡稱CPI)調整後,以1993年為最高490.37億元,而1999年經濟損失為410.15億元,在1999年後呈下降趨勢且在2009年經濟損失為165.79億元,25年來事故傷害造成的經濟損失減少37.52%。另外,以時間序列模式進行預測,事故傷害其未來3年的每千人口生命年數損失分別為8.86年、8.05年及7.23年;每千人口工作年數損失則為6.32年、5.52年及4.72年;經濟損失分別為147.55億元、127.89億元與108.23億元。 |
英文摘要 | Accidents are always the most important problem related to the safety of people. In this study, we attempt to explore the trend of the effects of accidents in terms of years of potential life lost and economic loss in the past 25 years. The Lee-Carter Model is used for exploring the trend of death rate. The time-varying mortality index from the Lee-Carter model is fitted by a time series model and nonlinear model to predict future accident mortality rate. The years of potential life lost is calculated based on information about life expectancy, and the Human Capital Method is used to figure out the economic loss caused by accidents. Finally, a time series ARIMA model is applied to predict the economic loss caused by accidents. The results show that accident mortality rate has trended upward, then downward in the past 25 years; it peaked at 70.04 deaths per 100,000 population in 1989, then declined after 1989 (1999 and 2009 are excluded due to the extraordinary events of the 921 earthquake and Morak typhoon). In addition, a time series model and nonlinear model are used for fitting a time-varying mortality index k(t), providing good results for predicting accident mortality rates from 2010 to 2011. Using the population of Taiwan in 2000 as a standard, the years of potential life lost per 1,000 population caused by accidents were 31.13, 21.44, and 10.06 in 1989, 1999, and 2009 respectively; the years of working life lost per 1,000 population were 29.56, 17.55, and 7.34 in those same years. The economic loss caused by accidents after adjusting for 2009 CPI peaked at 490.37 billion NT dollars in 1993, then began falling after 1999's 410.15 billion NT dollars, reaching 165.79 billion NT dollars in 2009. From 1985 to 2009, the economic losses caused by accidents declined 37.52%. In addition, the predictions of time series models show that, due to accidents, the years of potential life lost per 1,000 population were 8.86, 8.05, and 7.23; the working life years lost per 1,000 were 6.32, 5.52, and 4.72; and the economic losses were 147.55, 127.89, and 108.23 billion NT dollars from 2010 to 2012 respectively. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。