頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 臺灣地區區域別電力需求預測之研究=A Study on the Forecasting of Area's Power Needs in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 謝邦昌; 李世傑; 洪紹平; 陳鳳惠; 洪育民; 陳振鴻; | 書刊名 | 台電工程月刊 |
卷 期 | 601 1998.09[民87.09] |
頁 次 | 頁36-71 |
分類號 | 448.115 |
關鍵詞 | 區域別電力需求; ARIMA模式; 預測; Area's power need; ARIMA model; Forecast; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究採用時間數列預測模式,研究臺灣地區各地區之縣市用電及區處用電情形 ,蒐集各縣市用電情形,並依比例攤提方式,將各縣市年資料轉換成月資料,以進行模式之 建立。根據歷史資料分析,臺灣地區各區域在電力需求上有顯著的不同,因此在分析時根據 縣市,來歸類北、中、南、東四區,依照這種歸類方式將各區域別的用電需求分別求出。預 測結果顯示,區域別在未來對用電的需求,仍存在著相當差異,北區及南區的電子需求,不 論在民生及工業用電上,仍佔了本島大部分的用電量,如何平衡各區域的電力需求,並配合 各區域產業的發展政策,是未來必須重視的課題。最後本研究發展了一套簡單的預測系統, 將本研究的預測結果透過電腦的界面,將預測結果以圖表方式展示,以利使用者查詢及使用 。 |
英文摘要 | Due to the rising income and standard of living, the demand for electricity has been dramatically increasing in the past years. Only with the stable and sufficient supply of the power, we can ensure the growth of national economy. Hence, how to correctly forecast the need for electricity has become the first challenge to the Taiwan Power Company. Present forecast lays stress on total and department's load. However, this kind of forecast can not point out the latent difference between area's development and local climate, and the elasticity of power demand. The importance of local difference necessitates the study on area's power need. The first purpose of this project is to establish a power forecasting model for different areas in Taiwan. Then, the model will be used to improve Taipower's Decision Support System (D.S.S) and to provide useful information for making decision on energy policy. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。