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題 名 | 應用SLEUTH模式探討縣市合併對都市擴張模擬之影響=The Influence of City-County Consolidation of SLEUTH Model on Urban Growth Simulation |
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作 者 | 丁亞中; 陳芃妤; | 書刊名 | 地圖:中華民國地圖學會會刊 |
卷 期 | 22:1 2012.04[民101.04] |
頁 次 | 頁1-13 |
分類號 | 545.5 |
關鍵詞 | SLEUTH模式; 都市擴張; 縣市合併; SLEUTH; Urban growth; City-County consolidation; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 臺灣地狹人稠,行政區之間往往有密不可分、交錯複雜的關係,由於台灣原有行政區域有劃分過細的問題,小城市、小鄉村單打獨鬥將沒有競爭的空間,透過區域間整併成大都會區,進而可提升國際競爭力,都市擴張與區域發展政策的引導有相輔相成之關係。不適當政策的引導,可能會造成整體城市資源配置之浪費,而都市擴張將朝向漫無目的發展。因此,一個政策的實施如縣市合併,必須經過審慎考量,經過模擬、分析,才會得到一個較好的區域發展效益。SLEUTH模式是一種基於細胞自動機理論(Cellular Automata,CA)之都市擴張(Urban Growth)模擬模式,SLEUTH模式利用歷年地圖資料,並透過蒙地卡羅方法計算出模式之最佳擴張參數,利用此參數進行計算產生修正參數,以獲得較貼近都市擴張真實情況的模擬結果,SLEUTH模式應用在許多城市進行都市擴張模擬,往往皆獲得不錯的模擬效果。本研究利用SLEUTH模式以台灣北部地區(新北市、台北市、基隆市)三個不同行政區域組合,探討縣市合併對都市擴張模擬之影響。結果發現,行政區包括新北市之組合,都市皆呈現持續明顯的擴張狀態,而台北市與基隆市組合與其他組合相比,無明顯的都市擴張現象,僅有零星的都市建物產生。有鑑於此,各行政區所擁有之政治、人口、經濟等資源不盡相同,規劃行政區合併政策時,應把新北市列為重要考慮的對象。本研究僅以模式模擬結果進行探討,日後研究可針對其他因素進行探討,以有更完善之研究成果,進而對政府政策制定時能有所幫助。 |
英文摘要 | Taiwan is a small and densely populated island, often with close and extremely complex administrative relationships, due to the small size of the existing administrative regions. While there is no competition between small towns and villages, in order to enhance competitiveness between the country's big cities, regional cooperation is necessary, which increases challenges facing regional development and growth. Regional development is accompanied by urban growth, and since urban growth and policy guidance are complementary, under inappropriate policies urban growth may spread aimlessly, resulting in a wasteful allocation of resources in cities.Based on the Cellular Automata (CA) theory, the SLEUTH urban growth simulation model uses historical map data and Monte-Carlo method to calculate the best growth factor then calculates the correct growth factor in order to achieve the best simulation result of urban growth. In many cases using SLEUTH model has been shown to achieve good simulation results. In this study, we applied SLEUTH model in several combination cases in northern Taiwan (including Taipei City, New Taipei City and Keelung City) in order to understand the influence of city-county consolidation on urban growth simulation by using SLEUTH model. The simulation results show that combining New Taipei City, Taipei City and Keelung City gives the best results. In this study, we only discuss the different merge region results of model simulations; future research may explore other factors, in order to obtain still better results which may prove helpful when making urban policy. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。