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題名 | 1960年至2010年臺灣中部山區測站極端颱風降雨之強度與頻率變化分析=Station-Based Change Analysis in the Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Typhoon Rainfall over Mountain Area of Central Taiwan during 1960 to 2010 |
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作者姓名(中文) | 張伯宇; | 書刊名 | 工程環境會刊 |
卷期 | 26 2011.01[民100.01] |
頁次 | 頁1-15 |
分類號 | 328.63 |
關鍵詞 | 臺灣中部山區; 極端颱風降雨; 強度; 頻率; 變化; Mountain area of central Taiwan; Extreme typhoon rainfall; Precipitation intensity; Frequency; Change; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究以曾發布颱風警報和最大24小時降雨量不小於200mm為標準,在臺灣中部山區之日月潭、阿里山、玉山等3處氣象站1960年至2010年間的觀測資料中,分別界定出33次至59次不等的極端颱風降雨事件,並取最大24小時降雨量和年次數為強度與頻率指標,採用非母數統計方法檢視各氣象站該兩項特徵的趨勢變化和階段變化。研究結果顯示,整體而言,雖然研究區內颱風極端降雨事件的降雨強度和年發生頻率無統計上顯著的變化特徵存在,但由於具有晚期極端颱風降雨事件之強度和頻率較早期為高的變動特徵,近年致災風險相對提升,未來區內防災能力的強化有其必要性。 |
英文摘要 | In this study, typhoon rainfall data of Sun Moon Lake, Alishan and Yushan weather stations located in mountain area of central Taiwan during 1960-2010 are concerned. With the criterions those are issue of typhoon warning and 24-hours maximum rainfall above 200mm, extreme rainfall events due to typhoons were identified. Trend change and step change in the series of 24-hours maximum rainfall which is taken as an intensity indicator and annual number of extreme rainfall events were examined by using some nonparametric statistical methods. The synthetic result of station-based analysis revealed no statistically significant change was found within analyzed variables series in study area except the intensity series with step increase recently of Yushan weather station. In spite of this, both precipitation intensity and annual frequency of extreme rainfall events due to typhoons in later period seem higher within study area, potential increase of hydrological or geological hazard is implied. For disasters prevention, it is required to be taken notice of in the future. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。