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題名 | 兩岸海空運直航對臺灣經濟之影響評估=An Economy-wide Impact Assessment on Taiwan of Cross-Strait Direct Air and Sea Transports |
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作者 | 張淑滿; 官俊榮; Chang, Shu Man; Geaun, Jerome C.; |
期刊 | 貿易調查叢刊 |
出版日期 | 20101200 |
卷期 | 21:2 2010.12[民99.12] |
頁次 | 頁65-90 |
分類號 | 558.52 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 兩岸; 直航; 可計算一般均衡分析; 全球貿易分析模型; Cross-strait; Direct transport; Computable general equilibrium analysis; CGE analysis; Global trade analysis project; GTAP; |
中文摘要 | 摘要 本文透過 GTAP 模擬分析開放兩岸海空運直航之經濟影響為:1.對 台灣總體經濟影響:實質GDP 增加25.25 百萬美元,約0.0090%;社會 福利增加215.8 百萬美元。2.對個別產業影響:產值增加幅度最大的是化 學及塑(橡)膠製品,增加0.593%,約243.371 百萬美元;產出減少的產 業中以電子業減少約0.400% (277.844 百萬美元)最多;台灣各產業的出 口部分,只有對中國大陸增加887.285 百萬美元,對其他經濟體的出口 均是減少的;台灣進口增加的來源,主要是來自於中國大陸的進口增加 了405.239 百萬美元。 |
英文摘要 | Abstract This paper assesses the economy-wide impacts of cross-strait air and sea transports without a detour via simulation using GTAP model. It is concluded that 1. the macro-economy will benefit from the increment of real GDP by US$25.25 millions, and the increase of social welfare by US$215.8 millions; and 2.the impacts on individual industries include the production value increase of chemicals and plastic products by US $243.371 millions which is the largest among all the industries, the decrease in electrical product value by US$277.844 millions which is the largest decrease, the increase in exports to Mainland China by US$887.285 millions with the decreases in exports to all the other nations, and the increase in Taiwanese imports mainly due to the increase of imports from Mainland China by US$405.239 millions. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。