頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 消費券政策之總體經濟效果分析=The Macro-Economic Effects of Consumption Vouchers Policy in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 黃琝琇; 林建甫; | 書刊名 | 農業與經濟 |
卷 期 | 43 2009.12[民98.12] |
頁 次 | 頁81-121 |
分類號 | 553.01 |
關鍵詞 | 政府支出; 移轉性支出; 消費券; 總體計量模型; Government expenditure; Transfer payments; Consumption vouchers; Macro-Econometric model; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 2008年金融海嘯重創全球經濟,台灣政府在景氣低迷之際,採行在國內未曾實施的消費券政策,欲藉由刺激消費以達到提振景氣的目的。政策推出即引起各界廣泛討論,主要的爭議仍是在消費券發放能誘發多少消費?對振興經濟的效果有多少?因此,本文建立-總體經濟計量模型,探討2009年政府以移轉性支出方式,發放消費券振興經濟之總體效果,並模擬分析不同政策的情境。模擬結果顯示,相較於政府投資與政府消費而言,消費券政策對提升經濟成長的效果較爲有限,第一年約提升經濟成長率0.21%,並在改善所得分配方面較有助益。至於,政府投資與政府消費雖能在第一年有較高的經濟成長,但自第二年後卻反有負向效果;其次,針對消費券實施期間長短的效果比較,發現實施期間縮短使經濟成長較高,但實施期間拉長,家戶的邊際消費傾向較大;最後,比較消費券以租稅與債務融通的效果,發現租稅融通對刺激經濟成長效果較大,此突顯出預算平衡對國民經濟的重要性。 |
英文摘要 | This paper analyzes the effects of consumption vouchers policy on Taiwan economy. The consumption vouchers policy is a type of government transfer, and aims at stimulating domestic demand and economic growth. According to the simulations, we have three findings: first, compare to the government investment and consumption, the transfer payments are ineffective in raising economic growth, but effective in improving income distribution. Second, when consumption vouchers policy is implemented in a shorter period, the effects of stimulating economic growth are better. Thirdly, accounting of the effects of different methods to finance the consumption vouchers plan, the tax-financed transfers can raise economic growth much higher than the debt-financed transfers. This indicates the budget balance is important to enhance economic growth. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。