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題 名 | Smoothing Demand Disruption in Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment Model Development=緩和需求崩解於協同規劃預測與補貨模式之建置 |
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作 者 | 林俊達; | 書刊名 | 品質學報 |
卷 期 | 17:2 2010.04[民99.04] |
頁 次 | 頁115-129 |
分類號 | 494.578 |
關鍵詞 | 協同規劃預測與補貨; GARCH模式; 例外處理政策; Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment; CPFR; GARCH model; Exception policy; |
語 文 | 英文(English) |
中文摘要 | 摘 要 最近幾年,VICS CPFR與ECR Europe委員會已先後發行數份有關協同規劃預測與補貨系 統建置之建議書,提供有志於引進此協同模式之企業相關建置此系統之建議與指導藍圖。此 建議資料顯示藉由建置協同規劃預測與補貨系統 (CPFR),零售商與供應商兩造間可透過增加 預測準確性、降低缺貨、增加銷售與減少存貨,來增加預期利益。基於需求在本質上所具有 之異值波動性,本研究提出以GARCH 模式為基礎,來建置協同規劃預測與補貨系統。同時, 透過於CPFR 例外處理政策中,設定最佳化之安全存量乘數,需求之例外狀況不僅可被有效的 控制,並可達大淨現值最大化之效果。 |
英文摘要 | Abstract In recent years, both the VICS CPFR committee and ECR Europe have published several reports presenting pilot implementations of the CPFR process model and providing recommendations and roadmaps for companies interested in implementing it. These sources indicate that by implementing CPFR both retailers and suppliers can expect to benefit from increased forecast accuracy, reduced stock-outs, increased sales, and reduced inventories. Based on the demand heteroskedasticity in nature, a GARCH based collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment model is proposed in this paper. Meanwhile, through setting an optimal safety multiplier in exception policy, an exception demand also can be efficiently and effectively controlled to maximize the net present value. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。