查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 建築工程專案投資風險推估之研究=Estimating Investment Risk for Building Construction Project |
---|---|
作者 | 陳介豪; 林尚儀; 黃珮芬; 林秉緯; | 書刊名 | 營建管理季刊 |
卷期 | 81 2009.12[民98.12] |
頁次 | 頁24-39 |
分類號 | 441.31 |
關鍵詞 | 評估風險; 建築工程; 案例式推理; 風險係數; Risk estimation; Residential project; CBR; Risk coefficient; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 近年來建築工程趨向大型化與複雜化,使得工程專案面臨之不確定性因素日益複雜,因此需要迅速、精準、自動化的評估方法對建築專案投資風險加以預估並且掌握及瞭解,以便降低對專案與公司財務上之衝擊。本研究目的為建立一適用於評估工程風險之風險係數,藉以了解個別投資專案受到風險影響之程度。研究方法由蒐集之67筆集合住宅類型案例,採用案例式推理萃取相似專案之報酬率與其對應之市場報酬率來推求風險係數,利用專案各工項成本佔合約總價之比例與其它相關資訊等共18項因子來界定專案間相似程度,並用相似度演算法由資料庫中萃取相似度95%以上案例來推估風險係數,而以線性迴歸來評估專案報酬率變動相對於市場報酬率變動之敏感程度,所得之迴歸係數即為所求之風險係數β,若係數愈大表示專案面臨風險愈大,反之則風險愈小。而本研究最後由案例式推理之技術篩選出相似A、B、C 三個專案推估其風險係數,藉以說明運用方式,結果顯示A 專案之風險係數為0.49,報酬率為8.83%;B專案風險係數為0.95,報酬率為8.13%;C 專案風險係數為1.18,報酬率為5.52%,若將評估之報酬率與風險係數結合一起評估專案,可知投資A專案所獲取之報酬最高且風險最小,因此投資A專案為較佳選擇。 |
英文摘要 | Fast, precisely, and automatically estimating investment risks for construction projects is usually what managers intend to achieve. Using well-known construction and management techniques, residential construction projects usually encounter relatively less uncertainty and are relatively easier to derive their risk status. This study develops a method to (1) define the market risk of residential construction project; and then (2) determine the risk coefficient of an input project based on 18 features of the project. Data collection follows the data sampling of 95% confidential level, 10% of error, and 20-80 proportion. As a result, detailed information of randomly-selected 67 residential projects were collected, normalized, and analyzed. The estimation model combines the regression and case based reasoning (CBR) techniques to yield the coefficient for each project. The findings conclude that the risk coefficient exists and is highly related to inflation of construction materials in recent years. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。