查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 選前民調與選後結果對股市報酬影響之研究--以中華民國總統選舉為例=The Influence of the Pre-election Polls and the Election Results on Stock Returns: A Case of the Presidential Elections from Taiwan |
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作者 | 林少斌; 鄭喬明; | 書刊名 | 清雲學報 |
卷期 | 30:1 2010.01[民99.01] |
頁次 | 頁137-160 |
分類號 | 563.54 |
關鍵詞 | 總統選舉; 選前民調; 事件研究法; 市場模式; Presidential election; Pre-election polls; Event study; Market model; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 政治與經濟有著密不可分的關係,而選前民調為選舉之重要資訊,但過去許 多研究似乎忽略股票市場具有效率市場特性,因此較少討論選前民調是否會影響 股票報酬,故本文將分析選前民調的差異是否會加重或減緩總統選舉結果的市場 反應。本文以事件研究法分析中華民國第11 屆(2004 年)與第12 屆(2008 年)總統 大選前後台灣上市櫃股票是否有異常報酬(Abnormal Returns, AAR)或的現象,並 探討選前民調差異對不同產業是否會造成股價提前或延遲變化。結果發現在第12 屆總統選舉之事件日前的民調有明顯差距時,累積平均異常報酬(Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns, CAAR)確實會產生異常波動的情況,顯示選前民意調 查除了造成股價提前反應外,在事件日對市場衝擊的力道也較為緩和;而兩屆總 統選舉之事件日後各類股皆產生顯著的異常報酬率波動,顯示總統選舉事件確實 對台灣股市有明顯影響,故本文建議投資者在進行投資決策時應同時將選前民調 與選舉結果的影響納入考量。 |
英文摘要 | The results of many studies showed that the relationship between politics and economy was very close, and they often interworked. The information of pre-election polls is very important for the election; however, the researches of differences in pre-election polls influence the stock return are lacked. Therefore, this paper will focus on exploring the differences of pre-election polls with the election results after the stock return. This study applies the event study to test if there are abnormal returns (AR) in the eleventh and twelfth presidential elections from ROC, and to explore whether the stock price will change before or after the differences of pre-election polls in different industries. The empirical results indicate that when the event date has a noticeable gap before the poll, there will be fluctuations of abnormal return rate with high probability. This represented that the pre-election polls was one of the reasons of advanced reaction of stock price. However, the fluctuations of abnormal return rate in various types of shares after the event date revealed that political election affairs have significant influences on the stock market in the ROC. As a consequence, this study suggests the investors should take the effects of pre-election polls into consideration when making the investment decision. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。