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題 名 | 臺灣地區各縣市長期家戶小客車與機車持有模式之研究--所得效果之影響=Income's Effect on the Car/Motorbike Ownership of Households in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 周榮昌; 孫珮珊; | 書刊名 | 中國土木水利工程學刊 |
卷 期 | 19:4 2007.12[民96.12] |
頁 次 | 頁601-610 |
分類號 | 557.82 |
關鍵詞 | 家戶持有小客車; 家戶持有機車; 類神經網路; Compertz非線性迴歸模式; 線性對數迴歸模式; 所得彈性; Household car/ownership; Back-propagation neurla network; Gompertz and log-linear models; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 由於許多研究均顯示所得與持有機動車輛間之關係最為密切,因此,本研究即以家戶為研究對象,探討臺灣本島二十二縣市歷年家戶小客車以及家戶機車數量間之關係。在模式架構部分,本研究以類神經網路、Gompertz非線性迴歸模式及線性對數迴歸模式分析臺灣地區各縣市家戶持有小客車與機車以及所得之間的關係首先以樣本內之配適結果進行模式之建立,然後再進行樣本外之預測並與樣本外之實際值比對,進而評選出最佳預測模式,最後並假設不同情緒以預測未來十年內臺灣地區各縣市家戶之小客車與機車數量及計算其所得彈性,以作為有關單位研究以及制定規範時之依據與參考。 |
英文摘要 | Many studies have indicated that the income affect is the most significant factor determining the household car ownership. This study proposes to apply back-propagation neural network, and econometric models-Gompertz and log-linear models to establish Taiwan's vehicle ownership models by using the annual car and motorbike ownership data during the period of 1974-2002 in Taiwan. With the results from these three models, some criteria for making suitable policies by the government can be provided. The data are divided into two sample sets, one set for estimating the models, and the other set for evaluating the model performance through comparisons between predicted values and actual values. The superior forecast models can then be decided, and hence is capable of predicting the household car/motorbike ownership in the future. Finally, the household car/motorbike ownership for each county in Taiwan in the future is then predicted under different household income scenarios. And the results can be useful guidelines for managing and controlling the increasing number of vehicles. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。