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題 名 | MJO與臺灣北部冬季溫度變異的關係=MJO and Winter Temperature Variations in Northern Taiwan |
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作 者 | 李思瑩; 盧孟明; | 書刊名 | 氣象學報 |
卷 期 | 47:2 2008.03[民97.03] |
頁 次 | 頁45-62 |
分類號 | 328.4 |
關鍵詞 | 寒潮; 季內振盪; MJO; Madden Julian oscillation; Cold surge; Intraseasonal oscillation; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究使用1979-2006年12月至3月每6小時一筆的氣象局局屬臺北測站地表氣溫,以24小時內溫度下降幅度挑選低溫事件,分析MJO(Madden and Julian Oscillation)與臺灣冬季溫度變異的關係。MJO相位之判定乃是根據澳洲氣象局網站公布的Wheeler and Hendon (2004) RMM指標。把MJO依照相位的連續性和完整性分為「相位明顯」與「發展完全」兩類後,發現21個發展完全的事件中有16個事件在MJO發生期間臺灣出現低溫事件,出現率達76%,顯示MJO與臺灣冬季溫度變化的關係值得重視。然而,「MJO發展完全」的日數僅占全部冬季天數的24.9%,表示多數的MJO並不能達到「發展完全」的標準完成連續六個相位的發展。相位明顯的MJO顯示在相位3與相位7,即伴隨MJO的大尺度熱帶對流中心出現在孟加拉灣(相位3)和所羅門群島以東的西太平洋暖池(相位7)期間,較利於臺灣低溫事件發生;但是發展完全的MJO僅顯示相位3對低溫事件相對有利。整體而言,主導臺灣低溫事件的直接因素是蒙古高壓的加深與移動,以及從西伯利亞經蒙古到中太平洋換日線一帶擾動的振幅與配置,與屬於季內尺度的MJO熱帶對流與環流系統沒有明顯的關係。 |
英文摘要 | The relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and northern Taiwan temperature fluctuations is analyzed using the 6 hourly Taipei station temperature data during the winters (December-March) of 1979-2006. The MJO phases are represented by the RMM index (Wheeler and Hendon 2004) and downloaded from the website of the Bureau of meteorology, Australia. After separating the MJO into the "clear-phase" and "full-cycle" types based on number of phases identified for each event, we find that 76% (16 out of 21) of the "full-cycle" events occur concurrently with the cold events in northern Taiwan. This suggests that MJO and winter temperature fluctuations in Taiwan are related. However, it is important to note that, on average, the days of the "full-cycle" MJO only count 24.9% of the winter days. This is because the criterion for the "full-cycle" MJO, which should be identifiable in completed 6 phases, cannot be satisfied by most of MJO events. In terms of the relationship between the MJO phases and cold events in Taiwan, the "full-cycle" MJO shows that more cold events occur in phase 3 and 7 than in other phases. During these two phases, the MJO associated tropical convection center are over the Bay of Bengal and western Pacific warm pool area, respectively. The phases 3 of the "full-cycle" MJO, is also found to be favorable for the cold events. In summary, only weak relationship between MJO and northern Taiwan's winter temperature fluctuations is found in this study. Although the location of the major tropical convection center may affect the temperature fluctuations in Taiwan, but the former is not the primary cause for the latter. There is no evidence to support that MJO is the most important influential factor for winter cold events in northern Taiwan. The Mongolian High and the mid-latitude waves lying across from Siberia to the international Data Line can be the more important factors than MJO. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。